ArmInfo. The downgrade by Fitch Ratings of Armenia's rating from the former "BB-" to the current "B +" was based on a regional approach - dependence on Russia was taken into account. This was announced at the conference in Yerevan on July 4 by Eric Arispe, the director of the department on sovereign ratings of Fitch Ratings.
He recalled that Fitch has been rating Armenia since 2006, when the agency assigned the country a sovereign rating of "BB-", later - in 2008 it was followed by an increase to "BB". When the crisis came, and taking into account its strong influence on the country, the rating was reduced to the previous "BB-". In 2014, taking into account external shocks and dependence on Russia, another decline to "B +" followed, and this level continues to this day.
"Our rating reflects the country's willingness to service its debt. We consider four directions: macroeconomic policy, state finances, external accounts, structural factors." According to our current assessment, Armenia occupies a neutral position in all directions, but there are also strengths. At the moment, the trend is stable. From the position of shocks, it is difficult to imagine a stronger one than it was after 2013, but the Central Bank took all possible measures to neutralize them, and the government was able to quickly navigate with the implementation of the budget. Our estimation is restrained ", - underlined E Arispe.
He believes that in Armenia at the macro level the environment for investment growth is favorable. Improvement of the current account deficit in the balance of payments (over the last 2 years, the decline from 10% to 3% of GDP - Ed.) Was not only due to cyclical factors, but also structural changes. "But to apply for a rating on the BB scale, this level needs to be further reduced, increased export growth, higher GDP growth, and a reduction in external debt." We believe that the monetary policy pursues accelerates tax collection. The situation will be more stable than in the past, "E. Arispe concluded.
