Vardan Aramyan: new US sanctions against Russia will not seriously affect Armenia`s economy

ArmInfo. Armenian Finance Minister Vardan Aramyan does not think that the new US sanctions against the Russian Federation will seriously damage the economy, which will have a lagging effect on the Armenian economy. "The Russian economy has already adapted to work in conditions of sanctions," Vardan Aramyan told journalists after the government meeting on July 27, urging to refrain from negative scenarios for the Armenian economy.

As the minister noted, the fact that the new sanctions will not cause significant shocks in the economy of the Russian Federation. This time, according to the head of the Armenian Finance Ministry, the markets reacted less emotionally to the news - the Russian ruble fell slightly, but far from the way it was at the end of 2014. Proceeding from this, according to Aramyan, the boomerang effect for Armenia in the form of reduction of transfers or a decrease in the export potential of Armenian goods to the Russian market is not expected. In any case, the Armenian government operates according to the scenario envisaged for the budget of Armenia and the medium-term expenditure program. The bill, providing for additional sanctions against Russia, approved the day before by the US Congress, will affect projects for oil production, construction of oil pipelines and privatization. The lower limits of the congress approved the new restrictions in the framework of a package of sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea. Now this package should be approved by the Senate, and then signed by the President of the United States Donald Trump. The package itself is a large volume of documents that unites and supplements existing sanctions.

Russia is traditionally Armenia's main trading partner and the main source of private transfers to the republic. The authorities of the country and various independent experts have repeatedly stated about the so-called lagged - deferred - effect of dependence on the Russian economy, as a result of which any negative trends there necessarily affect the Armenian economy. In this case, according to experts, realistic goals set by the Government at this stage seem to be realistic, they will most likely require correction in case of changes and shocks in the Russian economy. According to the state budget of Armenia for 2017 the country's GDP by the end of the year will be 3.2%. By the program of medium-term expenditures of the Republic of Armenia for 2018-2020 the Ministry of Finance of Armenia forecasts GDP growth in 2018 at the level of 4.7%, in 2019 - 5.4%, in 2020 the indicator will reach 5.7%. GDP growth in the next 3 years will be ensured by an aggressive increase in the capital expenditure to GDP ratio. At the same time, we recall that the real GDP growth for 2016 in the state budget was set at 2.2%, the GDP deflator index at 4%, 12-month inflation at 4% (1.5%), And the state budget deficit - in 3.5% of GDP. Nevertheless, by the end of the year, GDP growth in Armenia, due to external shocks and shocks in the Russian economy, was 0.2- 0.3%, expenditures were exceeded to 1 trillion 440 billion drams, the country spent 70-80 billion drams on taxes and exceeded the planned deficit in the state budget is 2%.