ArmInfo. After a noticeable decline in the volume of remittances in Europe and Central Asia over the past three years, by the end of 2017, their annual growth will be 8.6%, the World Bank's analytical forecast on migration trends and the world market of money transfers Migration and Remittances says.
According to experts, in addition to the effect with a low base, the market recovery is mainly due to the strengthening of the Russian ruble to the USD, as well as the gradual recovery of the Russian economy after 2 years of recession and Kazakhstan. In the first half of 2017, external remittances from Russia increased by more than 10% in USD terms, although transfers in RUR terms continued to decline. Positive forecast of money transfers during 2018-2019 also due to the growth of economic activity and the expansion of employment in the euro area. According to the report, Russia and Ukraine remain the largest recipients of remittances in absolute terms, and the most dependent are the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan.
According to forecasts, the annual volume of private money transfers to Armenia will be at the level of $ 1.5 billion and will make up 13.9% of GDP, Georgia - $ 1.6 billion (12.0% of GDP), Tajikistan - $ 2.0 billion (28.0% of GDP), in Kyrgyzstan - $ 2.5 billion (37.1% of GDP), to Uzbekistan - $ 2.7 billion (3.9% of GDP), to Ukraine - $ 6.9 billion (7.2% of GDP).
To note, according to the latest official data, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia increased by 17.2% per annum in January-July 2017 to $ 899.9 million, while the outflow increased by 24.2% to $ 527.5 million. As a result, net inflows increased year-on-year to 8.5% to $ 372.4 million. According to the Central Bank of Armenia, the share of Russia in the inflow is 58.1% or $ 523.1 million, and in the outflow - 39.4% or $ 207.6 million. The inflow of transfers from Russia increased in January-July to 16,3% per annum with an outflow of 8.7%, which increased the net inflow from Russia by 21.9%. By way of comparison, we note that a year earlier - in January-July 2016 the inflow of transfers to Armenia decreased by 10.9% per annum with an outflow of 2.3%, which reduced the net inflow by 23.2% per annum. At that time, Russia's share in the inflow was 58.6%, with an absolute decline of 15.6%, and in the outflow - 45% with an absolute growth of 31%.
According to the money transfers of individuals, the Central Bank of Armenia, considering lower than expected growth rates in the first half of this year, when the net inflow increased by 11.1% per annum, revised the growth forecast for the whole of 2017 in the direction of slowdown - from the previous 14-16% the current 12-14%. This decrease in the forecasted figures of the regulator results in a slow recovery of the Russian economy, which is why the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia was revised by 1.5% from the previous 1.6%, due to the extension of US sanctions and the related reduction in investments.