Tuesday, October 10 2017 16:31
Emmanuil Mkrtchyan

WB experts predict an increase in the volume of private money transfers in Europe and Central Asia

WB experts predict an increase in the volume of private money  transfers in Europe and Central Asia

ArmInfo. After a noticeable  decline in the volume of remittances in Europe and Central Asia over  the past three years, by the end of 2017, their annual growth will be  8.6%, the World Bank's analytical forecast on migration trends and  the world market of money transfers Migration and Remittances says.

According to experts, in addition to the effect with a low base, the  market recovery is mainly due to the strengthening of the Russian  ruble to the USD, as well as the gradual recovery of the Russian  economy after 2 years of recession and Kazakhstan. In the first half  of 2017, external remittances from Russia increased by more than 10%  in USD terms, although transfers in RUR terms continued to decline.  Positive forecast of money transfers during 2018-2019 also due to the  growth of economic activity and the expansion of employment in the  euro area. According to the report, Russia and Ukraine remain the  largest recipients of remittances in absolute terms, and the most  dependent are the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan.

According to forecasts, the annual volume of private money transfers  to Armenia will be at the level of $ 1.5 billion and will make up  13.9% of GDP, Georgia - $ 1.6 billion (12.0% of GDP), Tajikistan - $  2.0 billion (28.0% of GDP), in Kyrgyzstan - $ 2.5 billion (37.1% of  GDP), to Uzbekistan - $ 2.7 billion (3.9% of GDP), to Ukraine - $ 6.9  billion (7.2% of GDP).

To note, according to the latest official data, the inflow of  transfers of individuals to Armenia increased by 17.2% per annum in  January-July 2017 to $ 899.9 million, while the outflow increased by  24.2% to $ 527.5 million. As a result, net inflows increased  year-on-year to 8.5% to $ 372.4 million. According to the Central  Bank of Armenia, the share of Russia in the inflow is 58.1% or $  523.1 million, and in the outflow - 39.4% or $ 207.6 million. The  inflow of transfers from Russia increased in January-July to 16,3%  per annum with an outflow of 8.7%, which increased the net inflow  from Russia by 21.9%. By way of comparison, we note that a year  earlier - in January-July 2016 the inflow of transfers to Armenia  decreased by 10.9% per annum with an outflow of 2.3%, which reduced  the net inflow by 23.2% per annum. At that time, Russia's share in  the inflow was 58.6%, with an absolute decline of 15.6%, and in the  outflow - 45% with an absolute growth of 31%.

According to the money transfers of individuals, the Central Bank of  Armenia, considering lower than expected growth rates in the first  half of this year, when the net inflow increased by 11.1% per annum,  revised the growth forecast for the whole of 2017 in the direction of  slowdown - from the previous 14-16% the current 12-14%. This decrease  in the forecasted figures of the regulator results in a slow recovery  of the Russian economy, which is why the forecast for GDP growth in  Armenia was revised by 1.5% from the previous 1.6%, due to the  extension of US sanctions and the related reduction in investments. 

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