Friday, October 13 2017 18:24
Naira Badalian

The expert called modest expectations for GDP growth in Armenia in 2018 at 4.5%

The expert called modest expectations for GDP growth in Armenia in 2018 at 4.5%

ArmInfo. Expectations for GDP growth in 2018 are very modest, as Armenia has the potential to provide 7-8% of economic growth. Head of the research center "Alternative" Economist Tatul Manaseryan stated this on October 13 at a press conference.

At the same time, the economist found it difficult to name ArmInfo the reasons for the recession in the economy last year, when Armenia closed the year of 2016 with 0.2% GDP growth instead of the promised 2.9%, and most importantly - what changes have set it for today's positive. He only pointed to the lack of qualified personnel and to the fact that many are traditionally "out of place". Tatul Manaseryan also noted the "hard labor" work of the prime minister in the direction of forming a positive image of Armenia. In case the economic policy of the Cabinet of Ministers fails, the economist called on not to blame the head of the Cabinet for this. "If the others are not initiative and do not work with the same drive, then it's time to replace them with worthy ones," he pointed out.

At the same time, as Tatul Manaseryan noted, even with the best scenario - ensuring the indicators set in the draft budget, "it will not save Armenia." "We need at least double-digit growth, only in this case it will be possible to overcome the current difficult social and economic situation," he concluded.

The GDP growth in Armenia in 2018 is projected at 4.5%. Forecasts of economic growth for the next year are largely due to the outlined positive dynamics in the current year. Taking into account the positive tendencies and based on the forecasts of the Armenian CB, the Ministry of Finance raised forecasts for economic growth in 2017 from the target of 3.2% to 4.3%. In the matter of ensuring economic growth, industry promises to be one of the locomotives with growth of 6.5%, the agricultural sphere will fix a 4% growth. The consolidated budget of Armenia for the year 2018 in terms of revenues will make 1.307 trillion drams (without the receipt of intergovernmental transfers), of which taxes - 1.247.9 trillion AMD. In the line of expenditures, it is expected to be 1 464.2 trillion AMD, of which capital expenditures will make 175 billion drams instead of last year's 98.6 billion drams. The deficit/GDP will be 2.7% the GDP-deflator is planned at 3.5%. By the end of 2018, the state debt, compared with the current year, will grow another $ 300 million - to over $ 7 billion and account for 60% of GDP.

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