Monday, October 30 2017 15:42
Alina Hovhannisyan

A. Javadyan: In 2018 real GDP growth is forecasted at 5.5% and the main drivers will be the services sector and the industrial sector

A. Javadyan: In 2018 real GDP growth is forecasted at 5.5% and the main drivers will be the services sector and the industrial sector

ArmInfo. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia in 2018, the real growth of Armenia's GDP will be 5.5% and the main drivers will be the services sector and the industrial sector. This was announced by the head of the Central Bank of Armenia Artur Javadyan on October 30, speaking at the discussion of the draft state budget for 2018 in the permanent parliamentary commission on financial and credit and budget issues.

He explained that this will be due to both external development, in particular, the restoration of Russia's GDP growth and the maintenance of a high level of international copper prices, and domestic - thanks to the implementation of a number of reforms in Armenia in 2017, and the continuation in 2018 of interest rates as a result extended monetary policy. "It is noteworthy that in 2018 the improvement of the investment environment will be accompanied by a long-term stimulation of injections into export-oriented production, and in the public and private sectors growth in investment activity is expected, and in the private sector it will be higher," Javadyan added.

According to him, the budget deficit in GDP is projected to be 2.7% in 2018, compared to the expected 3.6% in 2017. "This is a prerequisite for stabilization of the state debt and its gradual reduction: fiscal consolidation will continue in 2018 by neutralizing revenues and containing expenditures, and the ratio of tax revenues to GDP will grow only 0.1 percentage points in 2018 and reach 21.3%", he remarked.

Thus, according to the estimates of the Central Bank, the implementation of the state budget program in 2018 will have a restraining effect on gross demand, under which the main burden on ensuring economic growth falls on large-scale structural reforms. "This, accompanied by ensuring the duration of fiscal policy, will contribute to macroeconomic stability, creating the basis for economic growth in the long term," he explained.

Regarding the forecasts for 2017, A. Javadyan noted that in the first half of 2017 the economic growth in Armenia was 6% and it is expected that by the end of this year it will be possible to significantly exceed the forecast of GDP forecasted by the government and the GDP growth by 3.2%. The main driver will be the proposal formed by the industrial sector and the sphere of services. "The rapid restoration of gross demand was facilitated by the growth of both external and internal demand, which was due to the recovery in the growth rates of private consumption and private investment, which was facilitated by a gradual decrease in lending rates and an increase in lending due to expanded monetary policy. Their infusion into export- oriented production and this in turn has improved the dynamics of export volumes, "he said.

A. Javadyan added that the ratio of state budget expenditures to GDP by the end of 2017 will be reduced to 25.9%, compared to 28% a year earlier. The deficit of the state budget in GDP will make up 3.6% at the end of 2017, losing 2 percentage points to the indicator of a year ago. As a result, the impact of fiscal policy on gross demand in 2017 will be deterrent. The ratio of state debt to GDP will be 55%.

In medium term prospect, in order to ensure stable economic growth and promote exports as the main lever for GDP growth, in its policy for 2018 the government will retain a priority on restoring relatively high rates of infrastructure reform and GDP growth.

According to the IMF forecast, Armenia's GDP growth in 2017 will be 3.5% with a slowdown in 2018 to 2.9%. According to the World Bank forecast, the GDP growth in Armenia is expected to be 2.7% in 2017, with the acceleration of the rate in 2018 to 3.1%, in 2019 - up to 3.4%. According to the forecast of the EDB in 2017, the GDP of Armenia is expected to grow by 2.9%, the Asian Development Bank - by 2.2%.  Fitch improved the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from the previous 2.1% to the current 3.4% with an acceleration to 3.6% in 2018. The state budget of Armenia for 2017 laid the GDP growth by 3.2%, but the government voiced a 5% growth. According to the August forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 will be 3.9-4.8%. According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, the GDP growth of Armenia slowed to 0.2% in 2016 from 3.2% in 2015, and in January-September 2017 - 5.1% per annum (against 1.6% in the same period in 2016). The foreign trade turnover of Armenia in 2016 grew by 7.4% per annum, due to the growth of exports by 20% and the release of imports from the recession by 1.6% growth. Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-September 2017 increased by 21.7% per annum, due to the growth of exports by 19.1% and imports - by 23.2%. A year earlier, in January-September 2016, Armenia's foreign trade turnover increased by 5.7% due to an increase in exports by 19.6% with a drop in imports by 0.8%.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
Converse Bank customer wins Visa campaignConverse Bank customer wins Visa campaign
Armenia`s economy recovered quickly after `September shock` - Vahan  KerobyanArmenia`s economy recovered quickly after `September shock` - Vahan  Kerobyan
AraratBank launches Google Pay for its card usersAraratBank launches Google Pay for its card users
Goods imported to Armenia to be liable to excise taxGoods imported to Armenia to be liable to excise tax
Armenia`s national debt in terms of figures not essential - Armenia`s  premier Armenia`s national debt in terms of figures not essential - Armenia`s  premier 
French Development Agency to open permanent office in YerevanFrench Development Agency to open permanent office in Yerevan
Proposed reform to introduce system of mandatory universal income  declaration system for all resident citizens in Armenia cannot ensure  achievement of the declared goals: Tigran JrbashyanProposed reform to introduce system of mandatory universal income  declaration system for all resident citizens in Armenia cannot ensure  achievement of the declared goals: Tigran Jrbashyan
IDBank  “MalatiaIDBank  “Malatia" branch now more comfortable and modern
Largest mining company in Armenia presents its first ESG reportLargest mining company in Armenia presents its first ESG report
It is already possible to make payments with IDBank cards via Apple PayIt is already possible to make payments with IDBank cards via Apple Pay
 Converse Bank announces the launch of the  new coupon bonds placement Converse Bank announces the launch of the  new coupon bonds placement
Vine and Wine Foundation of Armenia: Volumes of wine production in  Armenia almost doubled over 5 yearsVine and Wine Foundation of Armenia: Volumes of wine production in  Armenia almost doubled over 5 years
Armenia`s minister of territorial administration hosts  Ukrainian-Armenian businessmenArmenia`s minister of territorial administration hosts  Ukrainian-Armenian businessmen
Iranian Minister of Energy announces launch of project for  synchronization of electricity between   Iran, Azerbaijan, Armenia and RussiaIranian Minister of Energy announces launch of project for  synchronization of electricity between  Iran, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia
Armenia`s economy most likely to not reach its historical high by the  end of 2022: Haykaz FanyanArmenia`s economy most likely to not reach its historical high by the  end of 2022: Haykaz Fanyan
Yerevan, Tehran continue to expand economic relationsYerevan, Tehran continue to expand economic relations
Success of the family business based in Tavush: from a home to a guest house and a small winerySuccess of the family business based in Tavush: from a home to a guest house and a small winery
Armenia becomes popular destination for BelarusiansArmenia becomes popular destination for Belarusians
Satlantis CEO: Armenia did not buy an expensive Mercedes, but rather   established a plant that will produce itSatlantis CEO: Armenia did not buy an expensive Mercedes, but rather   established a plant that will produce it
Robert Khachatryan: Satellite Control Center in Armenia to be ready  by the end of the yearRobert Khachatryan: Satellite Control Center in Armenia to be ready  by the end of the year
Armenia starts construction of its first satelliteArmenia starts construction of its first satellite
Participation of GeoProMining in state subvention projects in Armenia reaches 1 billion 700 million drams ($ 4.2 million )Participation of GeoProMining in state subvention projects in Armenia reaches 1 billion 700 million drams ($ 4.2 million )
Significant progress has been made on the issue of launching the  ferry crossing Poti - Port Kavkaz - Deputy MinisterSignificant progress has been made on the issue of launching the  ferry crossing Poti - Port Kavkaz - Deputy Minister
Armenia sings two loan agreements with AFD, ADBArmenia sings two loan agreements with AFD, ADB
Multifunctional cultural production cluster to open in DilijanMultifunctional cultural production cluster to open in Dilijan
Vice-President of Interstate Bank: After the developments at the  beginning of 2022, the turnover in the national currencies in the  correspondent banks of the Interstate Bank has increased  significantlyVice-President of Interstate Bank: After the developments at the  beginning of 2022, the turnover in the national currencies in the  correspondent banks of the Interstate Bank has increased  significantly
On November 22, Converse Bank to sell AMD, USD bonds worth AMD 3  billion, USD 10 million On November 22, Converse Bank to sell AMD, USD bonds worth AMD 3  billion, USD 10 million 
Armenia`s economy is unhealthy: Economist offers ways to solve  existing problemsArmenia`s economy is unhealthy: Economist offers ways to solve  existing problems
Google pay and Google wallet available in ArmeniaGoogle pay and Google wallet available in Armenia
Europrotocol is losing its popularity in Armenia due drop in  confidence in insurers; Market is getting adventurousEuroprotocol is losing its popularity in Armenia due drop in  confidence in insurers; Market is getting adventurous
If the potential for electricity export to Iran is activated, it will  affect domestic tariffs - Mher GrigoryanIf the potential for electricity export to Iran is activated, it will  affect domestic tariffs - Mher Grigoryan
Armenia`s defense expenditures in 2023, compared to 2018, will  increase by 113%: Pashinyan announces transition to professional armyArmenia`s defense expenditures in 2023, compared to 2018, will  increase by 113%: Pashinyan announces transition to professional army
Armenia increased export deliveries 2.2-fold in OctoberArmenia increased export deliveries 2.2-fold in October
No alternative to Armenia`s accelerated economic development -  minister No alternative to Armenia`s accelerated economic development -  minister 
Telecom Armenia team restore ed Internet access issues by launching  backup channelTelecom Armenia team restore ed Internet access issues by launching  backup channel
Ameriabank Launches Google Pay and Google Wallet Support for Card Users in ArmeniaAmeriabank Launches Google Pay and Google Wallet Support for Card Users in Armenia
Team Telecom Armenia warns of problems with Internet accessTeam Telecom Armenia warns of problems with Internet access
The state debt of Armenia has exceeded the psychological threshold of  $10 billionThe state debt of Armenia has exceeded the psychological threshold of  $10 billion
Ardshinbank showcases the Google Pay for Android fans in ArmeniaArdshinbank showcases the Google Pay for Android fans in Armenia
Google Pay is a new contactless payment option for Converse Bank customersGoogle Pay is a new contactless payment option for Converse Bank customers
Google Pay™ is available for Acba bank customersGoogle Pay™ is available for Acba bank customers
Armenia`s economy suffering losses due to lack of universal basic  skills - experts Armenia`s economy suffering losses due to lack of universal basic  skills - experts 
Share of non-cash transactions in plastic card transaction near 40% Share of non-cash transactions in plastic card transaction near 40% 
Discussions on concept of comprehensive health insurance held in  Armenia with participation of WB representativesDiscussions on concept of comprehensive health insurance held in  Armenia with participation of WB representatives
Construction of Kapan-Chakaten bypass road in Syunik region of  Armenia has been completedConstruction of Kapan-Chakaten bypass road in Syunik region of  Armenia has been completed
Number of virtual vPOS terminals is approaching 4 thousand in  Armenia, continuing double-digit growth trendNumber of virtual vPOS terminals is approaching 4 thousand in  Armenia, continuing double-digit growth trend
Pashinyan promises Pashinyan promises "geometric growth" of economy, in case of  implementation of  peace agenda
Armenia closely cooperates with its Iranian partners - PashinyanArmenia closely cooperates with its Iranian partners - Pashinyan
 Plastic cards` number exceeds 3 million in Armenia Plastic cards` number exceeds 3 million in Armenia
UNIDO launches quality infrastructure development program in ArmeniaUNIDO launches quality infrastructure development program in Armenia
Project to build new atomic power unit discussed in ArmeniaProject to build new atomic power unit discussed in Armenia
AMD 4,827,643 to the Homeland Defender’s rehabilitation center: The November beneficiary of AMD 4,827,643 to the Homeland Defender’s rehabilitation center: The November beneficiary of "The Power of One Dram" is the "Aren Mehrabyan" Foundation
Iranian minister: Iran`s trade with Armenia will triple after the  country joins the EAEUIranian minister: Iran`s trade with Armenia will triple after the  country joins the EAEU
Vardan Aramyan: The Armenian economy is overheated. Quick and  unpopular cooling solutions neededVardan Aramyan: The Armenian economy is overheated. Quick and  unpopular cooling solutions needed
Armenia`s CB to use all monetary instruments to reach the inflation target - chairmanArmenia`s CB to use all monetary instruments to reach the inflation target - chairman
Armenia continues road improvement and rehabilitation projectArmenia continues road improvement and rehabilitation project
Global catastrophe is approaching: Head of Mantashyants Entrepreneurs  Union  on  Global catastrophe is approaching: Head of Mantashyants Entrepreneurs  Union  on  "side effects" of growth due to re-exports and Russian  immigrants
Joint initiative of GITC and HSBC Armenia aims to expand youth  employment opportunities through capacity buildingJoint initiative of GITC and HSBC Armenia aims to expand youth  employment opportunities through capacity building
Expert: Armenia has every chance of becoming one of transit hubs for  sale of products of Russian manufacturers and supply of necessary  products for RFExpert: Armenia has every chance of becoming one of transit hubs for  sale of products of Russian manufacturers and supply of necessary  products for RF
Why have large infrastructure projects stalled?  Expert`s opinionWhy have large infrastructure projects stalled?  Expert`s opinion
Read more


Exchange rates
25.11.2022
RUB6.53-0.02
USD395.05-0.24
EUR411.29-0.05
GBP478.17-0.53
CAD296.07-0.23
JPY28.35-0.26
CNY55.38-0.14
CHF418.62-0.61