Wednesday, November 29 2017 20:21
Karine Melikyan

The Central Bank revised the forecast for GDP growth in 2017 by 4.4-4.9% with a slowdown in 2018 to 3.5-4.6%

The Central Bank revised the forecast for GDP growth in 2017 by  4.4-4.9% with a slowdown in 2018 to 3.5-4.6%

ArmInfo.The Central Bank of  Armenia revised the forecast for GDP growth for 2017 from 3.9-4.8% to  4.4-4.9%. At the same time, the Central Bank also changed the  medium-term forecasts for GDP growth: 3.5-4.6% in 2018 against the  previous 2.8-4.2%, in 2019 - 3.5- 4.9% against the previous 3.2-  4,8%, in 2020 - 3,8 - 5,4%. This is noted in the updated monetary and  credit program of the Central Bank of Armenia, which explains that  such economic growth in 2017 will mainly be due to the acceleration  of private consumption growth of 7.4% (against the previous 4.8%) and  an increase in private investment by 6% (without changes).

The Central Bank, having ceased to indicate the forecasted growth /  recession ranges by industry, agro- sector and construction sector,  expects in 2017 a more modest pace than previously noted, in  particular, then it was expected to grow by 1.6-2.4% in the  agricultural sector, and in the construction sector - a decline of  1.5-2.4%. In the sphere of services, the Central Bank expects  acceleration of growth rates, against previously forecasted 4.2-4.6%  for 2017, noting that positive trends in tourism development will  continue in 2018. In terms of industrial growth, there is no updated  forecast, but earlier in 2017, the range was 7.8-8.6%.

In terms of export and import in 2017, the Central Bank retained the  previous forecast - the same growth rates of 10-12% (against the  previously envisaged export growth of 3-5% and imports of 4-6%).  According to the money transfers of individuals, the Central Bank  revised its forecast for growth in 2017 to accelerate from the  previous 12-14% to the current 14-16%, which was more rapid than  expected by the recovery of the Russian economy. The Central Bank's  forecast for unemployment in 2017 was maintained at 17.9% (against  the previously expected 17.7%), with a subsequent decline by 0.3-0.5  percentage points annually.

According to the IMF forecast, Armenia's GDP growth in 2017 will be  4% (against forecasted in October of 3.5%), according to the World  Bank forecast - 2.7%, with the acceleration of rates in 2018 to 3.1%,  in 2019 - to 3,4%. According to the forecast of the EDB in 2017, the  GDP of Armenia is expected to grow by 2.9%, the Asian Development  Bank - by 2.2%. Fitch improved the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia  in 2017 from the previous 2.1% to the current 3.4% with an  acceleration to 3.6% in 2018. The state budget of Armenia for 2017  laid the GDP growth by 3.2%, but the government is voicing 5% growth.  According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank, Armenia's GDP  growth in 2017 will be 4.4-4.9%. According to the National  Statistical Service of Armenia, Armenia's GDP growth slowed to 0.2%  in 2016 from 3.2% in 2015. In January-October of 2017, economic  activity in Armenia increased by 7% (drivers - services, trade,  industrial sector), against almost stagnating 0.4% in the same period  in 2016.

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