ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia revised the forecast for GDP growth for 2017 from 3.9-4.8% to 4.4-4.9%. At the same time, the Central Bank also changed the medium-term forecasts for GDP growth: 3.5-4.6% in 2018 against the previous 2.8-4.2%, in 2019 - 3.5- 4.9% against the previous 3.2- 4,8%, in 2020 - 3,8 - 5,4%. This is noted in the updated monetary and credit program of the Central Bank of Armenia, which explains that such economic growth in 2017 will mainly be due to the acceleration of private consumption growth of 7.4% (against the previous 4.8%) and an increase in private investment by 6% (without changes).
The Central Bank, having ceased to indicate the forecasted growth / recession ranges by industry, agro- sector and construction sector, expects in 2017 a more modest pace than previously noted, in particular, then it was expected to grow by 1.6-2.4% in the agricultural sector, and in the construction sector - a decline of 1.5-2.4%. In the sphere of services, the Central Bank expects acceleration of growth rates, against previously forecasted 4.2-4.6% for 2017, noting that positive trends in tourism development will continue in 2018. In terms of industrial growth, there is no updated forecast, but earlier in 2017, the range was 7.8-8.6%.
In terms of export and import in 2017, the Central Bank retained the previous forecast - the same growth rates of 10-12% (against the previously envisaged export growth of 3-5% and imports of 4-6%). According to the money transfers of individuals, the Central Bank revised its forecast for growth in 2017 to accelerate from the previous 12-14% to the current 14-16%, which was more rapid than expected by the recovery of the Russian economy. The Central Bank's forecast for unemployment in 2017 was maintained at 17.9% (against the previously expected 17.7%), with a subsequent decline by 0.3-0.5 percentage points annually.
According to the IMF forecast, Armenia's GDP growth in 2017 will be 4% (against forecasted in October of 3.5%), according to the World Bank forecast - 2.7%, with the acceleration of rates in 2018 to 3.1%, in 2019 - to 3,4%. According to the forecast of the EDB in 2017, the GDP of Armenia is expected to grow by 2.9%, the Asian Development Bank - by 2.2%. Fitch improved the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from the previous 2.1% to the current 3.4% with an acceleration to 3.6% in 2018. The state budget of Armenia for 2017 laid the GDP growth by 3.2%, but the government is voicing 5% growth. According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank, Armenia's GDP growth in 2017 will be 4.4-4.9%. According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, Armenia's GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in 2016 from 3.2% in 2015. In January-October of 2017, economic activity in Armenia increased by 7% (drivers - services, trade, industrial sector), against almost stagnating 0.4% in the same period in 2016.