Tuesday, January 9 2018 10:04
Karine Melikyan

The state debt of Armenia came out of a two-month stupor and in November 2017 it resumed growth - up to $ 6.4 bn, and the external one - crossed the $ 5.1 bn line

The state debt of Armenia came out of a two-month stupor and in November 2017 it resumed growth - up to $ 6.4 bn, and the external one - crossed the $ 5.1 bn line

ArmInfo. The state debt of Armenia by December 1, 2017 amounted to $ 6.4 billion (3.1 trillion drams), slowing the annual growth rate from 16.7% to 14.3%, which was provoked by a significant slowdown in domestic debt growth from 46.3% to 18.2% , while accelerating the growth of external debt - from 9.8% to 13.3%. This is taking place against the backdrop of the recovery of economic growth - 7.3% in January-November 2017 to the same period in 2016.

According to preliminary data of the RA Ministry of Finance, provided by the ArmInfo National Statistical Service, as of December 1, 2017, the external state debt exceeded the limit of $ 5.1 billion (2.5 trillion drams) or 81%, and domestic debt - $ 1.3 billion (624.3 billion drams) or 19%. It should be reminded that Armenia's foreign debt conquered the height of $ 5 billion in August 2017, continuing its ascent in September-October - to $ 5.1 billion and not frozen at that level afterwards.

Only in January-November 2017, Armenia's national debt grew by 8.5% due to an increase in external debt by 6.3% and an increase in domestic debt by 18.2%. A year earlier, in January-November 2016, the growth rate of domestic debt also outstripped the growth of external debt, but much more significantly - respectively, 37.5% and 4.7%, which increased the total national debt by 9.8%.

In the structure of external debt, 88.2% or $ 4.5 billion fell to the government, and the remaining 11.8% or $ 614.9 million - to the Central Bank, against 88.9% and 11.1% a year earlier. Moreover, the government's external debt accelerated the annual growth rate from 11.7% to 12.6%, while the growth of the Central Bank's debt sharply jumped from 3.1% to 23.5%. Only in January-November of 2017, the external debt of the Central Bank grew by 21.9% more than the government - by 4.7%, against almost the same moderate increase in January-November 2016 - 4.5% and 4.1% respectively.  Domestic government debt dominates in the structure of domestic government debt - in January-November 2017, the share fell from 91% to 87.3% ($ 1.1 billion or 544.8 billion drams), with an annual growth of absolute value of 13.6%, and only in January-November - by 8.9%. Then followed the Armenian Eurobonds - $ 155.1 million or 75.1 billion drams, the share of which increased in January-November 2017 from 8.4% to 12%, with an annual increase in the absolute value of 63.6%, and only in January-November - 62, 2%. The rest is covered by guarantees - 0.7% or $ 9 million with an annual growth of 29.4%, with a similar growth for January-November. A year earlier, as of December 1, 2016, the share of state bonds in domestic state debt was 90.7%, Armenian Eurobonds - 8.7%, and guarantees - 0.6%.  Recall that in 2016 the total public debt of Armenia rose by 15.7% to $ 5.9 billion, in particular, foreign debt - by 11.6% - to $ 4.8 billion, and domestic - by 49.7% - to $ 1.14 billion (against $ 761.5 million in 2015). In 2016, the degree of coverage of external debt with gold and foreign exchange reserves increased from 41.1% to 45.9% against the backdrop of an increase in external debt for this period by 11.6%, with an increase in reserves by 22.2%. Due to the growing national debt and high migration, the specific debt load per capita reached $ 2 thousand by January 1, 2017, of which over $ 1.6 thousand came from external debt.

According to the statistical data for 2011-2016, the population of the Republic of Armenia decreased from 3.274 million to 2.987 million. As a result of 2016, the share of the national debt in Armenia's GDP was 56.6%, compared to 48.7% in 2015, and only in external debt the share in GDP increased from 41 , 4% in 2015 to 45.8% in 2016. Armenia's GDP growth slowed in 2016 to 0.2% from 3.2% in 2015. In January- November 2017, the annual growth rates of economic activity accelerated from 0.6% to 7.3%. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia, GDP growth in 2017 will be in the range of 4.4-4.9%, and according to the forecasts of the RA Ministry of Finance - 5.5-6%. Meanwhile, in the state budget program for 2017, GDP growth is set at 3.2%.

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