Wednesday, February 28 2018 19:48
Karine Melikyan

Armenia`s state debt rose to $ 6.9 billion by February 2018

Armenia`s state debt rose to $ 6.9 billion by February 2018

ArmInfo. The state debt of Armenia continues to grow. So, in January 2018 by January 2017, Armenia's national debt grew by 15.6% to $ 6.9 billion (3.3 trillion drams).  According to preliminary data of the RA Ministry of Finance provided ArmInfo National Statistical Service, the external debt increased by 16.7% per annum - up to $ 5.6 billion (2.7 trillion drams), with an annual growth of domestic debt by 18.2% - to $ 1.3 billion (635.7 billion drams). As a comparison, in January 2017, by January 2016, the growth of the external debt by 11.9% and domestic debt by 47.3% increased the total state debt of Armenia by 17.4%.

In the structure of external debt 89% or $ 4.963 billion accounted for by the government, and the remaining 11% or $ 612.5 million - by the Central Bank. Moreover, the government's foreign debt increased in January 2018 compared to January 2017 by 14.8%, against the background of which the external debt of the Central Bank increased significantly - by 19.8%, compared with more modest growth in January 2017 compared to January 2016 - respectively 13.2% and 7%.

In the structure of the domestic state debt, state bonds dominate, in January 2018 the share was 87.8% ($ 1.2 billion or 557.9 billion drams), with an annual growth of absolute value of 12.7%. Then followed the Armenian Eurobonds - $ 152.9 million or 73.5 billion drams, which accounted for 11.6%, with an annual increase in absolute value of 59.9%. The rest is covered by guarantees - 0.6% ($ 9 million), with an annual increase in the absolute value of 28.6%. A year earlier, in January 2017 the share of government bonds in the structure of the internal debt had 91%, with the annual growth of the absolute value of 53.7%, then followed eurobonds - 8.4%, with the annual decline in the absolute value of 0.5%, and the proportion of guarantees was 0.6%, with an annual increase in the absolute value of 3.5 times.

According to the forecasts of the World Bank, the share of Armenia's state debt in GDP will grow to 59.6% in 2018 from 58.8% in 2017, and the external debt to 48.4% from 48% in 2017. In 2019, the World Bank predicts a decline in the share of public debt in GDP to 59.3%, and external debt in GDP - up to 48%. The updated World Bank analytical report on Armenia's economy notes that Armenia's external debt in 2018 will be $ 5,184.6 million with growth in 2019 to $ 5295.9 million.

In 2017 the national debt of Armenia increased by 15.3% to $ 6.8 billion (3.3 trillion AMD) due to the growth of external debt by 14.6% - to $ 5.5 billion (2.7 trillion drams) and the growth of domestic debt by 18.2 % - to $ 1.3 billion (619.5 billion drams). By way of comparison, we note that for 2016, the growth of the external debt by 11.6% and domestic debt by 49% increased the total state debt of Armenia by 17%.  Growing in Armenia the national debt and the ongoing migration have deepened the specific debt burden per capita to $ 2.3 thousand as of 1 January 2018, of which more than $ 1.8 thousand comes from external debt, against respectively $ 2 thousand and more than $ 1.6 thousand as of 1 January 2017. Taking into account the real scale of migration, the burden of public debt per capita would be much higher (according to statistical data as of January 1, 2018, the population of the RA was 2.973 million, against 2.986 million a year earlier and 3.274 million five years earlier). In 2017, the degree of coverage of external debt with gold and foreign exchange reserves decreased from 45.9% to 39.6% amid a significant increase in external debt, with a meager decline in reserves. The share of national debt in Armenia's GDP reached 58.8% by the end of 2017, against 56.6% in 2016.

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