Tuesday, June 12 2018 14:14
Karine Melikyan

CBA improves GDP growth forecast to 4.5-6.5% in 2018 

CBA improves GDP growth forecast to 4.5-6.5% in 2018 

ArmInfo.According to the updated forecast by the Central Bank of Armenia GDP growth will total 4.5-6.5% in 2018, 4.1-6.2% in 2019 and 3.9-6.1% in 2020 versus earlier forecasted 4.7-5.8%, 4.5-5.9 %-in 2019 and 4.4-6% in 2020 respectively. This is set out in the Monetary Policy Program (MCP) of the Central Bank for the quarter 2 of 2018, published in June.  

According to the program private consumption will grow by 3.7%,  investments will grow by 9.5%, the influence of which on economic  growth is assessed 4.6%, while export will influence GDP growth by  2.6%.

The Central Bank of Armenia forecasts an increase in imports in 2018  by 5-7%, with exports growing by 11-13% versus earlier forecasted  6-8% and 9-10% respectively. The growth of remittances in 2018 will  remain within 7-9%, in accordance with revised forecast of Ruble  devaluation and the scenario of assessment of Russia's economic  growth (1.8% in 2018).

The Central Bank expects that industry and services will be the  drivers of economic growth, while agricultural field and construction  industry will have insignificant impact on GDP growth. 

To note, in June of 2018 the World Bank improved the forecast for GDP  growth in Armenia to 4.1% with further slowdown to 4% in 2019-2020.  The state budget of Armenia envisages 4.5% GDP growth in 2018. 

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, Armenia's  GDP grew by 7.5% in 2017 to 5.580 trillion AMD ($ 11.6 billion). A  year earlier, in 2016, GDP growth slowed to 0.2% from 3.2% in 2015.  The GDP deflator index in 2017 was 102.2%, against 100.5% in 2016 and  101.2% in 2015. 

Economic growth in 2017 was supported by the services sector - by  14.4% per annum, trade - by 14% and the industrial sector - by 12.6%,  versus growth of 7.1%, 0.1% and 6.7%, respectively, a year earlier. A  relatively modest growth was also ensured by the energy complex and  the construction sector - 6.1% and 2.2%, which recorded a decline of  6.2% and 10.8% a year earlier.  Against this background, the  agricultural sector, further remaining in recession, only slowed down  to 3% from 5.2% in 2016.  

Armenia's foreign trade turnover for the year 2017 increased by  26.9%, in particular exports - by 25.2% and imports - by 27.8%. A  year earlier in 2016 foreign trade turnover increased by 7.4%, due to  growth in exports by 20% and imports by 1.6%. In 2015, the foreign  trade turnover decreased by 20.6% per annum due to a 26.5% drop in  imports with a 3.9% decline in exports. 

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