ArmInfo. The Armenian government did not refuse to implement any credit program, previously approved by the law "On the State Budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2018". On August 22, Arshaluys Margaryan, the head of the Department of State Debt Management of the Ministry of Finance of Armenia, told ArmInfo correspondent when commenting on the statistics on reducing the state debt of the RA. The program on attracting external borrowing, according to Margaryan, is carried out in accordance with the approved state budget.
According to him, now more attention is paid to the management of public debt. The new government closely follows both the attraction of credit funds and the increased efficiency of their use. Nevertheless, as Arshaluys Margaryan points out, we must remember that the new Armenian government, which started its duties in May 2018, continues to implement the budget, developed and approved in the legislature even under the previous Cabinet. "Today there were no changes or deviations, and if everything goes according to the approved Law on the Budget of the Republic of Armenia, the state debt at the end of 2018 will be as much as predicted in the law," he said. At the same time, as the representative of the Ministry of Finance pointed out, the recorded changes in the level of the state debt towards the decline are very typical for the sphere and are caused, both by seasonality and by the largest share of the external debt in the structure of the state debt of the country ($ 4.880mln or 78.9%), and a number of technical aspects .
Thus, the state debt of Armenia reached $ 6.744.6 million by the end of 2017, having recorded growth of about $ 832 million for the year. At the end of January, the indicator grew by $ 123.5 million - up to $ 6.898.1 million, by the end of February, compared to January, the level of state debt decreased by $ 46.9 million - up to $ 6.851.2 million, in March amounted to $ 6.877.1 million (an increase of $ 35.9 million). Since the end of April, the national debt has decreased by $ 19.6 million - up to $ 6,867.5 million, and by May 31 by as much as $ 113 million - up to $ 6,754.5 million. The trend persisted and in June 2018 - a decrease of $ 50.3 million to $ 6,704.2 million. , and only by July 31, the national debt rose to $ 6,759 million. Thus, judging by the figures, the state debt of the republic for January-July of this year. not only did not grow, but also decreased by $ 15.6 million.
However, not all so unambiguously. According to the head of the Department, the huge share of external debt in gross debt and its multicurrency, put in dependence the "physical size" of Armenia's national debt against the currency. Thus, as a result of the depreciation of the SDR, EUR, JPY, AED, CNY against the dollar for the period from April to August 1, government debt in foreign currency decreased by $ 53 million. In the opposite case, with the April exchange rate remaining, by the end of July, the debt would have grown by $ 8 million.
In addition, it turned out that the next major repayment of domestic debt in the amount of 41.7 billion drams, which, according to established practice, was to be held on April 29 (the next falls on October 29) coincided with the rest day. As a result, the transfer was made in early May, due to which the level of public debt, in a compartment with the previous factor, decreased from May by $ 113 million, not April, which coincided with the coming of the new Cabinet.
Nevertheless, these processes do not mean that the state debt of Armenia will continue its decline. As of today, the national debt is beginning to grow, as the republic has not deviated from the plans for attracting external borrowings planned in the state budget. According to the document, in 2018 Armenia intends to attract about $ 416.3 million, $ 317.7 million of them for targeted programs (co-financing of the government will be $ 58.5 million), and another $ 98.5 million under the programs of budgetary assistance. "At this stage, all credit programs are subject to detailed study before they are realized, and Armenia may decide to cancel a number of credit programs, but this practice has not yet been fixed and everything is under discussion," Margaryan said.
As of today, Armenia has received $ 90.4 million for the implementation of targeted programs, the rest are expected before the end of the year. In line with the programs of budgetary assistance, as practice shows, activity is only observed in the 4th quarter. If there are no force majeure situations, including sharp jumps in the exchange rate of foreign exchange, as Arshaluys Margaryan assured, Armenia will comply with the framework outlined by the law on the state budget.
By the end of 2017 the aggregate state debt of Armenia rose to $ 6.774.6 million, instead of the $ 6.512 billion laid in the "Budget-2017". Thus, for a year, having increased the debt burden by $ 832.5 million, Armenia by $ 262.6 million has accumulated more than planned. According to the budget, by the end of 2018 the national debt is to be increased by approximately $ 400 million - up to $ 7.168 million. (483.06 for one US dollar). According to the World Bank's economic growth forecasts updated in June, the forecast for 2018 has been improved from the previous 3.8% to the current 4.1%, and by 2019, expectations for growth have remained at 4%. According to the share of Armenia's national debt in GDP, the World Bank predicts 58.6% for 2018, with a slight decrease to 58.3% in 2019.
