Tuesday, October 23 2018 18:21

ArmInfo. Former head of the Armenian Ministry of Finance Vardan Aramyan sees risks to ensure the final GDP indicator for 2018 at 6% or more, as expected by the  Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Armenia. "The forecasts  of world economic growth for 2018 and 2019 are constantly revised  downwards, which is one of the risk factors for achieving economic  growth in Armenia for the coming years," said Vardan Aramyan in an  interview with ArmInfo.

According to Aramyan, economic growth is also inertial in nature and  the steps taken by the government in the past naturally influence the  trend of economic activity today. In this context, it was expected  that last year's GDP growth of 7.5% maintained its lag effect  somewhere up to the middle of the current year.  However, since  August, economic growth began to slow down, and in September it  continued the trend of deceleration.

Thus, according to the National Statistical Committee, published the  day before, in September 2018 compared with September 2017, it grew  by only 0.2%. According to operational data, economic activity in  Armenia in August slowed sharply due to the decline in agriculture.  In particular, the indicator of economic activity in August 2018  compared with August 2017 increased by only 0.6%, whereas in July it  was 11.1%.  The trend of slowing economic activity in Armenia  continued in September, which was mainly due to the decline in the  volume of gross agricultural output - in 9 months of this year, the  figure dropped by 4.8% to 595 billion drams. The rate of decline is  observed in the mining sector and in terms of exports.

Meanwhile, recently the Central Bank of Armenia raised the range of  the forecast for GDP growth for 2018 from the previous 4.6-6.5% to  the current 5.6-6.9%, more modestly revising the expected growth  threshold for 2019 in the direction of acceleration - 4, 6-6,4% and  for 2020 - 4,1-6,2%, against previously predicted respectively  4,1-6,2% and 3,9-6,1%. The Ministry of Finance of Armenia revised its  forecasts for the current year from 4.5% to 6.5%. Meanwhile,  according to the expert, against the background of official  statistics, the expectations of the financial authorities of the  republic are now seen in a not so joyful light.  The outpacing growth  of the Armenian economy, while maintaining the emerging trends, is  delayed in 2019. Back in 2016, the financial authorities of Armenia  estimated the growth potential of the economy in the range of 3.5-4%.  In order to qualify for 4.5-5% GDP growth and adhere to this trend,  as pointed out by Vardan Aramyan, it is necessary to invest in  infrastructure and continue the tough course of economic reforms that  will have a direct impact on total factor productivity a) economy.

The implemented and planned investments in infrastructure projects,  although they will have a positive impact, will not be enough to  achieve the desired indicators. "The private sector also has to take  part in the process - to accumulate capital and invest. In the  meantime, the data for the first half of the year show that real  growth in investments was mainly due to the accumulation of reserves,  and not an increase in the physical volume of capital," he explained.  .

In addition, according to Vardan Aramyan, the behavior of economic  entities, which they demonstrated during the last 6 months, is cause  for concern. "During this period, there was no information about  large- scale investments in the country's economy, and against the  background of increasing economic, including trade confrontation  between the big players of the world economy, which naturally creates  additional risks for the growth of the sea economy, there is cause  for concern in terms of providing 4 , 9% of the final figure by the  end of 2019, as laid down in the draft budget for next year, "he  said.

At the same time, the indicator at the level of 4.9% is not an  insurmountable height for the Armenian economy. "If it suddenly  happens that after the extraordinary parliamentary elections,  economic policy will be strengthened, and the behavior of people, as  consumers, will be adjusted so as to direct their activities to one  desired point, then Armenia will probably 4.9% increase the economic  growth rate. But today, ensuring the growth rate of the Armenian  economy in the draft budget for the 2019th year, taking into account  the existing realities within the country and marked global risks, is  a possible, but difficult task, " - concluded Vardan Aramyan.