ArmInfo. The growth of economic activity in Armenia in January- December 2018 slowed to 5.8% per annum, against acceleration in 2017 to 7.7% from 0.5% in 2016.
The drivers were the service sector and the commercial sector, with a modest growth in the industrial sector and a lagging downturn in the agricultural sector. According to the final data of the RA Statistical Committee, only in December 2018, an increase of 24.3% was recorded with any-o-y growth of 6.4%, while a year earlier the December growth was slightly more modest - 21.8%, and the annual growth was higher - 12.6%.
The growth of economic activity in January-December 2018 continues to be mainly supported by the service sector - by 18.8% per annum and by the trade sector - by 8.7%, against the background of modest growth in the industrial sector - by 4.3%, the construction sector - by 4, 5% and the power complex - by 0.2%. The agricultural sector, lingering in a downturn, accelerated the pace to 7.6% from 3% in 2017. A year earlier, in January-December 2017, the service sector showed the highest growth, the commercial sector and the industrial sector - 14.4%, 14% and 12.6%, respectively, with a relatively modest growth of the energy sector by 6.1% and the construction sector - by 2, 2%.
The industrial price index increased by 1.6% in January-December 2018 compared to the same period of 2017, decreased by 1.2% in December 2018, and increased by 0.5% only in December 2018, against corresponding growth 3.9%, 3.2% and 0.8% in the same periods of 2017.
On a monthly basis (in December 2018), only the power complex (0.7%) fell in recession, while all other areas showed growth: the construction sector - 84.7%, trade - 34.1%, the agricultural sector - 22.1 %, services - 15.7%, industrial sector - 12.5%. A year earlier, in December 2017, growth was also observed in all areas: the construction sector - 83.4%, trade - 35.1%, the power complex - 32.2%, the agricultural sector - 11.1%, the industrial sector - 10.2%, the services sector - 10.1%.
In y-o-y terms (December 2018 by December 2017), the volume decline was recorded in the agricultural sector and the energy complex - by 2% and 18.7%, respectively, and in other areas growth was observed: services - 22.2%, industrial sector - 5.5%, trade - 4.8%, construction - 1.2%. A year earlier, in December 2017 to December 2016, all industries showed growth: the energy complex - 17.8%, the services sector and the industrial sector - 15.6% each, trade - 12.7%, construction - 10.4% and the agricultural sector - 3, 3%.
According to statistics in January-December 2018, in absolute terms, the leadership is held by the commercial sector with a volume of 2.9 trillion drams ($ 6.1 billion). The service sector has advanced to the second position for almost a year - 1.8 trillion drams ($ 3.7 billion), displacing the industrial sector to third place - 1.7 trillion drams ($ 3.6 billion), in the fourth - the agricultural sector - 889.7 billion drams ($ 1.8 billion), and the fifth construction sector - 422.3 billion drams ($ 874.3 million). The volume of electricity generation in January-December 2018 was 7776.9 million kWh, of which 671.5 million kWh only in December.
At the same time, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in January-December 2018 amounted to 3562.7 billion drams ($ 7,375.1 million) with a slowdown in annual growth to 16.4% from 26.9% in 2017. In its structure, the volume of exports has significantly slowed y-o-y ngrowth - up to 7.8% from 25.2% in 2017, amounting to 1164.9 billion drams ($ 2411.9 million), while the y-o-y growth of imports slowed slightly - to 21.1% from 27.8% in 2017, having made 2397.8 billion drams ($ 4963.2 million).
The average settlement rate of dram in December 2018 was 484.67AMD/ $ 1, and in January-December - 482.99 AMD / $ 1, against 483.18 AMD / $ 1 in December 2017 and 482.72 AMD / $ 1 - in January- December 2017 It should be noted that according to the World Bank's forecast for 2018 updated in January 2019, there was an improvement in expectations for Armenia's GDP growth by 5.3% (against the previous 4.1%), by 2019 - by 4.3% with an acceleration in 2020 to 4.6 % and the persistence of these rates in 2021. Moreover, the WB designated the industrial sector as drivers of economic growth in Armenia for 2019 - 6.1%, while for the services sector and the agricultural sector, expectations were more modest - growth of 3.9% and 2.9% respectively, while GDP growth drivers for 2018, the service sector and industrial sector were indicated - 6.3% and 5%, respectively, with the agricultural sector growing by 2.5%. For 2019, the WB predicts export growth by 8% in Armenia's foreign trade, while imports grow by 11.8% (against the previously forecasted 9.8% and 9.5%, respectively), and for 2020 - export growth by 7.9%, while import growth by 9.2%, against the growth of export and import projected for 2018 by 9.1% and 16.9%, respectively.
To recall, the Central Bank of Armenia in November 2018 adjusted the range of the forecast for GDP growth: for 2018 - from the previous 5.6-6.9% to the updated 4.6-5.1%. At the same time, the regulator revised downwards the expected growth threshold in the medium term: for 2019 - 4.4-5.5% and for 2020 - 3.9-5.4% (versus previously predicted 4.6-6.4% and 4.1-6.2%, respectively). In the state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2018, GDP growth of 4.5% is laid, and in the state budget for 2019 - by 4.9%