Monday, February 25 2019 17:20

ArmInfo. At the beginning of 2019, the external conditions for the functioning of the economies of the EDB member countries are improving. This is stated in the  materials of the Eurasian Development Bank.

Despite the emerging trends of economic slowdown in the world and the  persistence of risks associated with the trade conflict between the  United States and China, the situation in the main export markets of  the EDB member countries is changing in a positive direction. First  of all, the oil market has seen a recovery in quotations from the  December lows of 2018, which is facilitated by the entry into force  of OPEC + agreements to reduce production in 2019. The US Fed  following the January meeting noticeably softened the rhetoric about  further tightening of monetary policy, announcing its intention to  take a wait-and-see approach regarding future policy changes. A  possible suspension of the interest rate increase cycle of the US  Federal Reserve can increase investor interest in emerging market  assets, as well as support commodity prices.

The improvement in the external background at the beginning of 2019  affected the situation in the currency markets of the EDB member  states. In Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, national currencies  partially restored positions against the US dollar lost at the end of  2018. Against the background of a slight decrease in foreign policy  tensions and continued support from oil prices, the direction of  exchange rate dynamics in the short term may continue towards  strengthening. In the medium term, a steady weakening of the  currencies of the EDB member countries is expected with a general  trend towards a weaker emerging market currency.  At the same time,  according to the source, after 3 months of active growth in December  2018, the level of activity in the industrial sector slowed down amid  the exhaustion of the base effect in the gold mining industry. This  is reported in the materials of the Eurasian Development Bank.  The  growth in the production of base metals in December 2018 was 5.9%  after 52.7% a month earlier.  Among the industries that held back the  growth of the industrial sector, the largest negative contribution  was made by the production of petroleum products and non-metallic  mineral products.  Positive growth rates are maintained in the mining  and textile industry. In general, in 2018, the volume of industrial  production grew by 5.4%.