Wednesday, March 20 2019 18:36

ArmInfo.The World Bank revised the outlook for Armenia's foreign trade to 2019, expecting acceleration of export growth to 8.8% and a slowdown in import growth  to 12.2%, against export growth of 7.8% and import by 21.1% actually  recorded in 2018 . For 2020, the World Bank forecasts export growth  by 9.4%, and imports - by 11.4%.A new forecast is given in the WB  economic report "Armenia. A powerful mandate for change in conditions  of a slowdown in global economic growth.  Winter 2019" published  March 20.

According to the forecast of the World Bank, in the structure of  Armenia's foreign trade, exports in 2019 will reach $ 2.928 billion  with an increase in 2020 to $ 3.181 billion, and imports - $ 4.909  billion in 2019 and $ 5.260 billion in 2020, against the volumes  actually recorded in 2018: exports - $ 2.412 billion, imports - $  4.963 billionAs a comparison, we note that in the October report, the  WB predicted an increase in exports by 9.1% and imports - by 16.9% in  Armenia, which, when compared with the actual rates, indicates a  higher rise in imports with a more modest increase in exports. For  2019, the WB then predicted the growth of exports by 8% and imports  by 11.8% for Armenia's foreign trade, and by 2020 - a growth of  exports by 7.9% and imports by 9.2%. But at the same time, the WB, in  the updated forecast, did not change the expectations for Armenia's  GDP growth for 2019 and 2020 - 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively, against  the actual growth in 2018 by 5.2% to6.003 trillion drams ($ 12.4  billion).

According to the RA Statistics Committee, the total foreign trade  turnover of Armenia slowed down in January-December 2018 to 16.4%  from 26.9% in January-December 2017, reaching $ 7.4 billion. In  particular, exports slowed down growth from 25.2 % to 7.8%, amounted  to $ 2.4 billion, and imports - from 27.8% to 21.1%, amounting to $  4.96 billion. On foreign trade turnover of Armenia as a whole, and on  export and import in particular, Russia with a large margin keeps the  primacy. Thus, the annual growth of foreign trade turnover between  Armenia and Russia in January-December 2018 slowed to 11.2% from last  year's 26.1%, reaching $ 1.9 billion, which was caused by a slowdown  in exports from 44.6% to 19.6% and imports - from 19.1% to 7.2%, the  volumes of which amounted to $ 666.5 million and $ 1.26 billion,  respectively.Moreover, the volume of foreign trade of Armenia with  the countries of the EAEU grew in 12 months of 2018 by 11.3% per  annum - up to $ 1.99 billion, and with the EU countries - by 19% to $  1.8 billion. In particular, the export of Armenian goods to the EAEU  countries increased by 20, 7% to $ 688.98 million with an increase in  imports by 6.9% to $ 1.3 billion, while with EU countries import  growth prevails over export rates - 26.8% against 7.9% to $ 1.1  billion and $ 683.8 million respectively.

The main buyers of Armenian goods and services in January-December  2018 were Russia - 27.6% in exports, Switzerland - 13.9%, Bulgaria -  8.9%, Iraq - 6.2% and Germany - 5.6%. The main suppliers of imported  products to Armenia were Russia - 25.3% in total imports, China -  13.4%, Germany - 5.9%, Iran - 5.4% and Turkey - 5.1%.