Friday, March 22 2019 17:44

ArmInfo. The social and political risks noted by the World Bank (WB) in connection with the possible failure of the economic reforms implemented by the Armenian  government are zero. The Minister of Economic Development and  Investments of Armenia Tigran Khachatryan told ArmInfo correspondent  about this.It should be noted that in the WB's new forecast,  published on March 20, "Armenia.

A powerful mandate for change in the context of a slowdown in global  economic growth. Winter 2019," WB experts warn: <if the government  fails to achieve significant success, political and social  voltage>.According to Tigran Khachatryan, he does not see such risks,  since the Armenian government takes consistent steps aimed at the  growth of the Armenian economy.These warnings, as well as the fact  that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  expressed more restraint regarding the expected economic growth of  Armenia in 2019, according to the minister, are traditionally more  cautious and conservative in their forecasts than governments  themselves. This, as the head of the Ministry of Economic Development  and Trade pointed out, is due to the fact that these authoritative  international organizations have a certain institutional system of  assessment methodology, which is based on averages of past times.  "For them, assessing the impact of structural changes in the economy  is usually more difficult than for the Cabinet. Accordingly,  forecasts vary in a number of cases. And yes, we are more optimistic  than they are," said Tigran Khachatryan.

Recall that the growth of the Armenian economy in 2019, according to  the forecast of the World Bank, will make 4.3%, the IMF expects by  0.2 percentage points higher - 4.5%. Meanwhile, the Armenian  government is counting on a higher total figure of 4.9%. A five-year  government program claims GDP growth of at least 5% per  year.Meanwhile, the World Bank, in its report on the state of the  Armenian economy, notes that GDP growth will slow down, but will  maintain steady rates. The economy can be adversely affected by  processes in the region and a slowdown in global economic growth. In  particular, the volume of exports of goods and services will  decrease. The report also says that economic reforms in Armenia will  require persistent efforts, since otherwise it will be impossible to  achieve significant results, create jobs, increase salaries, solve  social problems and attract investments to the country.World Bank  experts state: <despite the fact that social indicators have  improved, there are still many people in the country who live in  poverty. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell, reaching 15.7  percent in 2018.  This is the best figure for the last 10 years>.  Poverty reduction is expected to a minimum.The IMF is more  conservative in its expectations and predicts lower economic growth  this year amid a reduction in remittances from abroad, which,  however, according to experts of the fund, can be offset by increased  investment. According to IMF estimates, the projected decline in  growth rates in Armenia is mainly due to external risks, including  "increased tensions in world trade, turbulence in global financial  markets and increased regional geopolitical tensions."