ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia predicts unemployment rate at 15.9% for 2019 (according to the old methodology). In the medium term, the Central Bank expects an annual decline in unemployment by 0.1-0.2 percentage points to 15.6%.
As noted in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program (DCT) published in late March for the first quarter of 2019, this level of unemployment is expected in terms of GDP growth projected for 2019 of 4.6- 6.1%.The Central Bank also predicts growth in nominal wages in the private sector in 2019 by almost 6.4%, with an acceleration of the pace in the medium term to 8.3%.
For 2018, the Central Bank of Armenia predicted an unemployment rate of 16.3% with a subsequent decrease in the medium term to 15.8%. It is difficult to say how this forecast of the Central Bank in terms of unemployment for 2018 corresponds to the actual level, since the statistics for this indicator at the end of 2018 have not yet been published. But it is noteworthy that the year before, the unemployment rate predicted by the Central Bank for 2017 almost coincided with the actual figure of 17.8% against the expected 17.9%.At the moment, there are statistics on the unemployment rate for the third quarter of 2018: the figure calculated by the old methodology was 15.3% (against 16.5% in the third quarter of 2017), and according to the new methodology, 20.1% (against 19.9% in the third quarter of 2017).
The new method of calculation does not take into account those employed in the household.It should be noted that according to the WB forecast, the poverty level in Armenia (calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) at a cost of $ 5.5 per day) may decrease in 2019 to 35.9% from 388 expected by 2018. Based on PPP of $ 3.2, the level of poverty in Armenia, according to the forecast of the World Bank, may decrease in 2018-2019 from 10.1% to 9.1%, and based on PPP of $ 1.9 - from 1.3% in 2018 to 1% in 2019 WB experts say: "Despite the fact that improved economic indicators and labor market dynamics have contributed to poverty reduction, most of the population of Armenia continues to feel the effects of poverty. In 2017, based on PPP of $ 3.2 per day, 12.3% of the population were below the poverty line , and based on PPP at $ 5.5 per day, it turned out to be 50%.
The level of extreme poverty in Armenia, according to the food threshold of the subsistence minimum of about $ 50 per month, was 1.4% in 2017, which is slightly lower than recorded in 2008 1, 6%. In In 2017, due to high economic growth (7.5% - Ed.), Consumption increased by 40% below the poverty line, in contrast to 2011-2016, when the benefits of economic growth mainly affected the welfare of the upper decile population (the most affluent stratum of residents of the RA - Ed.) ".