Monday, May 6 2019 17:26

ArmInfo.The inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in the Q1 of 2019 unfolded the trend vector in the direction of a decline of 3% per annum from 22.1% growth in the  same period of 2018. At the same time, the outflow of money in the  Russian Federation was delayed in an upward trend with a slowdown in  y-o-y rates to 18.2% from 53.1% in the same period of 2018.

This worsened the dynamics of net inflow of transfers from Russia from  1.4% y-o-y growth in the Q1 of 2018 to 24.4% y-o-y decline in the Q1  of 2019. According to the Central Bank of Armenia, in the Q1 of 2019,  the volume of transfers from Russia amounted to $ 195.6 million, and  the outflow to the Russian Federation - $ 119.7 million, which formed  a net inflow in this direction at $ 75.9 million.

The opposite picture is observed according to the trend of transfers  in the direction of the USA. In particular, the y-o-y growth in  inflows from the US accelerated sharply from 11.4% in the Q1 of 2018  to 29.7% in the Q1 of 2019, with a significant slowdown in the  outflow in the United States from 28.8% to 7.8%. As a result, the  volume of inflows from the United States again began to prevail over  the outflow (inflow = $ 57.4 million, outflow = $ 52.6 million),  while in 2017 the outflow dominated.

In total, the inflow of individuals' transfers to Armenia slowed down  the growth in the first quarter of 2019 to 9.3% per annum from 14.5%  in the Q1 of 2018, reaching $ 391.5 million. At the same time, the  growth rate of outflow of transfers slowed down more significantly -  from 49% to 4.8%, amounting to $ 286.6 million. This improved the  y-o-y dynamics of net inflow of transfers with a yield of 34.4%  decline in Q1 2018 by 23.5% growth in Q1 2019, forming at the level  of $ 104.8 million. In the inflow, Russia's share decreased in the Q1  of 2019 to 50% from 56.3% in the Q1 of 2018, and in the outflow, on  the contrary, increased from 37.1% to 41.8%.

According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2019, a  net inflow of private transfers is expected to grow in the range of  5-7%, in line with the predicted development of the Russian economy,  from where the dominant volume of remittances flows to Armenia.  According to GDP growth, the Central Bank of Armenia forecasts a  range of 4.6-6.1% in 2019.  

To recall, in 2018 the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia  slowed down growth to 1.7% from 14.6% in 2017, making $ 1.786  billion. At the same time, the growth rate of outflow of transfers  slowed slightly from 21.2% in 2017 to 20.1 % in 2018, reaching $  1.188 billion. This worsened the dynamics of net inflow of transfers  from 7.1% growth in 2017 to 22.1% decline in 2018, forming at the  level of $ 597.2 million. In the inflow, Russia's share decreased  from 2018 60.6% to 58.8%, and in the outflow, on the contrary,  increased from 38% to 39.7%.