Monday, May 6 2019 20:29

ArmInfo. In Armenia, a significant slowdown in the growth of public debt with a decrease in the rate of migration kept the specific debt burden per capita at the level of $  2.3 thousand. Of these, $ 1.9 thousand, as in the previous year,  comes from external debt. By April 1, 2019, the population of the  Republic of Armenia decreased slightly - to 2.962 million from 2.970  million a year earlier.  

The degree of foreign debt coverage by gold and foreign exchange  reserves decreased by April 1, 2019 to 39.2% from 40.1% as of April  1, 2018 (compared to 42.5% as of April 1, 2017), amid a fall in  external debt by 1.5% while reserves fell by 3.7%. As a comparison,  we note that as of April 1, 2018, both external debt and reserves  showed an annual growth of 15.5% and 8.8%, respectively.

According to preliminary data of the RA Ministry of Finance,  published by the Statistics Committee, by April 1, 2019, the national  debt of Armenia amounted to $ 6.934 billion (3.373 trillion drams),  slowing sharply the annual growth to 0.7% from 14.9% a year earlier,  due to a reduction in external debt, with moderate growth internal.  In particular, external debt decreased by 1.5% per annum by April 1,  2019, reaching $ 5.488 billion (2.670 trillion drams), while domestic  debt grew by 10.2% to $ 1.446 billion (703.4 billion drams). As a  comparison, we note that in the same period of 2018, these figures  showed high growth rates: external debt - by 15.5%, domestic - by  12.3%, which increased total national debt of Armenia by 14.9%.

In the structure of external debt, the shares of the Government and  the Central Bank for the first quarter of 2019 did not change - 90.1%  and 9.9% respectively (versus 89% and 11% a year earlier), reaching $  4.944 billion and $ 544.7 million in absolute terms. quarterly and  annual cuts, the decline was recorded in both the external debt of  the Government and the Central Bank. In particular, the government  external debt showed a quarterly decline of 0.8% and an annual one of  0.4%, while the Central Bank showed a quarterly decline of 1% and an  annual decrease of 10.8%. A year earlier, in I quarter of 2018,  government foreign debt recorded a growth of 1.4% with an annual  growth of 15.2%, while the central bank was even higher - 1.6% for  the quarter and 18% for the year.

In the structure of domestic public debt, government bonds dominate -  in the first quarter of 2019, the share increased from 86.9% to 87.1%  ($ 1.3 billion or 612.5 billion drams), with an annual increase in  absolute value of 9.6%. Then follow the Armenian Eurobonds - $ 177.7  million or 86.5 billion drams, the share of which decreased in the  first quarter of 2019 from 12.4% to 12.3%, with an annual increase in  the absolute value of 15.2%. The rest is accounted for by guarantees  - 0.6% ($ 9 million, unchanged for the year). As a comparison, we  note that in the first quarter of 2018, the share of government bonds  in domestic debt was 87.6%, Eurobonds - 11.8% and guarantees - 0.6%,  and the annual growth of these indicators was respectively 10.5%, 26,  7% and 28.6%.

According to the updated World Bank forecast, instead of the  previously expected decline, now the ratio of the state debt of  Armenia to GDP is expected in 2019 to 56.3% from the actual 55.8% in  2018, with a meager decrease in 2020 to 56%. According to the  government's debt, the WB expects a ratio to GDP at the level of  51.1% in 2019 with a decrease in 2020 to 50.5%, against 51.4%  actually recorded in 2018. On external debt, the WB forecasts the  ratio to GDP at 43.6% in 2019, with a decline in 2020 to 42.5%,  against 44.6% actually recorded in 2018. In absolute terms, according  to the forecasts of the World Bank, Armenia's foreign debt in 2019  will be $ 5.671 billion, with growth in 2020 to $ 5.905 billion. The  growth forecast for the Armenian economy remained unchanged: 4.3% in  2019 and 4.6% in 2020 .  Recall that by January 1, 2019, the total  national debt of Armenia amounted to 3.3 trillion drams or $ 6.9  billion, in the structure of which external debt - 2.7 trillion drams  or $ 5.5 billion, and domestic - 672.4 billion drams or $ 1.4  billion. The national debt of Armenia increased by 2018 in 2018 2%  due to the growth of external debt by 0.7% with the growth of  domestic debt by 8.6%. As a comparison, we note that in 2017, the  growth rates of these indicators were higher: external debt - by  14.6%, domestic - by 18.2%, which increased the total national debt  of Armenia by 15.3%. Gold and foreign exchange reserves turned the  dynamics in 2018 down by 2.8% from a 5% growth in 2017, reaching $  2.3 billion. In 2011- 2018, the population of Armenia decreased by  309.2 thousand people. (from 3.274 million in 2011).