ArmInfo. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the unemployment rate in 2019 will be 21.7% (calculated according to the new methodology), with a subsequent annual decline in the medium term by 0.1-0.2 percentage points to 20%. This forecast is given in the Central Bank's Monetary and Credit Policy (MCP) Program for the 3rd quarter of 2019, published at the end of September, which also upgrades the forecast for GDP growth for 2019 - 6.7-7.2% (against the previous 5.9- 7.4%).
Such economic development, as well as the acceleration of production growth rates (in parallel with the containment by enterprises of the growth of nominal costs per employee), accompanied by an increase in the supply of labor on the labor market, will help to maintain the unemployment rate in 2019 near the specified level, the Central Bank's MCP program says.
From now on, the Central Bank will indicate the forecasted unemployment rate in the calculation according to the new method, against the previously cited indicators calculated according to the old method, which is due to a similar revision by the RA Statistical Committee of the methodology for calculating the unemployment rate.
It should be noted that at the end of 2018, the actual unemployment rate (calculated according to the old method) completely coincided with the Central Bank forecast - 16.3%, and at the end of 2017, the actual level was lower than the forecasted by the Central Bank - 17.8% against the expected 17.9% . According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the unemployment rate in Armenia, calculated on the new methodology, decreased in 2018 to 20.4% y-o-y in average from 20.8% in 2017. And in the calculation on the old method, a decrease in the unemployment rate in 2018 was recorded to 16.3% of the average annual from 17.8% in 2017. To note, the new calculation method does not take into account those employed in the household. In the first quarter of 2019, the unemployment rate in Armenia, calculated by the new methodology, amounted to 21.9% compared to 21% a year earlier.
According to statistical data, as of January 1, 2019, according to the new methodology, the number of employed people reached 915.5 thousand people (with a y-o-y growth of 1.4%) or 45.4% of the economically active population (versus 44.7% in 2017), while there were 234 thousand unemployed (with a y-o-y decline of 1.1%). According to the old methodology, the employed population reached 1073.8 thousand people (with a y-o-y growth of 6.1%) or 53.3% of the economically active population (against 50.1% in 2017), and there were 208.4 thousand people unemployed (with a y-o-y decline of 4.8%).