Economist: In 2020, Armenia will ensure high-quality economic growth

ArmInfo.The optimistic forecasts of the international structures - the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the growth of GDP in  Armenia are largely due to the country's domestic policy in the  economic sector. This opinion was expressed by economist Inga Galayan  during a press conference on October 21.

According to her, for the IMF, internal political changes, in  particular the fight against shadow, corruption, and tax changes  implemented over the past year, were extremely important. At the same  time, Galayan emphasized the importance of the absence of  inflationary pressures, the stability of the financial market and the  improvement of Armenia's position in the Global Competitiveness Index  (up to 69th position from previous 77th- ed. note).

Referring to the reports of international structures, the economist  noted that an improvement in the structure of GDP is expected. In  this regard, she also drew attention to the data of the National  Statistics Committee, where there is a tendency for a decrease in the  dynamics of imports, against the background of progressive export  growth rates.

''Armenia's trade balance is expected to improve. As a result of  import substitution, we will have production, and at the same time we  will be able to increase export volumes. This is an important  indicator that allows us to achieve significant economic progress and  real GDP growth'', Galayan said.

However, she stressed that according to forecasts of international  structures, a decrease in the ratio of public debt to GDP is  expected. "The cost-effectiveness will increase, appropriate  production will be created that will provide an opportunity to  develop the economy," the expert noted.

To this, she added that the WB predicts that Armenia's GDP will grow  in all production sectors, in particular in agriculture, industry,  and services. ''If we consider the indicators of the services sector  in January-August, we will see that the hospitality and catering  sectors recorded significant growth. This indicates growth in the  tourism sector, which will also improve the structure of GDP. That  is, we will ensure high-quality economic growth'', Galayan concluded.

It should be noted that the World Bank improved its forecast for GDP  growth in Armenia for 2019 - 5.5%, with a slowdown in 2020 to 5.1%,  and by 2021 the expected growth rate was maintained - 5.2%. The IMF  forecasts a 6.0% increase in Armenia's GDP in 2019 with a slowdown in  2020 to 4.5%. The Central Bank of Armenia predicts for 2019 GDP  growth in Armenia in the range of 6.7-7.2% (against the actual 5.2%  in 2018). The state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2019 sets a   growth of GDP by 4.9%.