ArmInfo.The optimistic forecasts of the international structures - the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the growth of GDP in Armenia are largely due to the country's domestic policy in the economic sector. This opinion was expressed by economist Inga Galayan during a press conference on October 21.
According to her, for the IMF, internal political changes, in particular the fight against shadow, corruption, and tax changes implemented over the past year, were extremely important. At the same time, Galayan emphasized the importance of the absence of inflationary pressures, the stability of the financial market and the improvement of Armenia's position in the Global Competitiveness Index (up to 69th position from previous 77th- ed. note).
Referring to the reports of international structures, the economist noted that an improvement in the structure of GDP is expected. In this regard, she also drew attention to the data of the National Statistics Committee, where there is a tendency for a decrease in the dynamics of imports, against the background of progressive export growth rates.
''Armenia's trade balance is expected to improve. As a result of import substitution, we will have production, and at the same time we will be able to increase export volumes. This is an important indicator that allows us to achieve significant economic progress and real GDP growth'', Galayan said.
However, she stressed that according to forecasts of international structures, a decrease in the ratio of public debt to GDP is expected. "The cost-effectiveness will increase, appropriate production will be created that will provide an opportunity to develop the economy," the expert noted.
To this, she added that the WB predicts that Armenia's GDP will grow in all production sectors, in particular in agriculture, industry, and services. ''If we consider the indicators of the services sector in January-August, we will see that the hospitality and catering sectors recorded significant growth. This indicates growth in the tourism sector, which will also improve the structure of GDP. That is, we will ensure high-quality economic growth'', Galayan concluded.
It should be noted that the World Bank improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2019 - 5.5%, with a slowdown in 2020 to 5.1%, and by 2021 the expected growth rate was maintained - 5.2%. The IMF forecasts a 6.0% increase in Armenia's GDP in 2019 with a slowdown in 2020 to 4.5%. The Central Bank of Armenia predicts for 2019 GDP growth in Armenia in the range of 6.7-7.2% (against the actual 5.2% in 2018). The state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2019 sets a growth of GDP by 4.9%.