ArmInfo. The inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia in January-July 2019 turned the trend vector downward by 2.9% per annum from 9.5% growth in the same period of 2018. The same change was recorded in the dynamics of the outflow of money in the Russian Federation: last year's growth of 14% was replaced by the current 1.6% decline. This worsened the dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from Russia from 6.6% annual growth in January-July 2018 to a 3.9% annual decline in January-July 2019. According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, according to the results of January-July 2019, the volume of transfers from Russia amounted to $ 556.1 million, and the outflow to Russia - $ 232.9 million, which formed a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 323.2 million.
The opposite picture is observed in the trend of transfers towards the USA. In particular, the annual growth in inflows from the United States accelerated sharply from 18.3% in January-July 2018 to 30.8% in January-July 2019, while accelerating the growth in outflows to the United States from 23.9% to 53.4%. As a result, the volume of the outflow of transfers to the United States began to prevail over the inflow (outflow = $ 163.2 million, inflow = $ 151.1 million), while in January-July 2018 and 2017, the inflow dominated. The net inflow of transfers from the United States dropped from a positive level to a minus, having decreased by 3.3 times year on year (January-July 2019 to January-July 2018).
In total, the inflow of transfers of individuals to Armenia accelerated the growth in January-July 2019 to 9.1% per annum from 7.5% in January-July 2018, amounting to $ 1.1 billion. At the same time, the growth rate of the outflow of transfers slowed down - from 25.1% to 23.2%, amounting to $ 780.97 million. This accelerated the annual decline in net transfer inflows from 15.3% in January-July 2018 to 17.6% in January-July 2019, forming at the level of $ 274.3 million. Russia's share in the inflow decreased from 59 , 3% in January-July 2018 to 52.7% in January-July 2019, which was also observed in the outflow - from 37.3% to 29.8%, while the US share in both the inflow and outflow increased - accordingly but up to 14.3% and 20.9% from last year's 11.9% and 16.8%.
According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2019, the range of expected growth in net inflow of private transfers has worsened to 1-3% from the previous 5-7%. The Central Bank caused this, mainly, by a slowdown in the Russian economy in the volumes of the construction sector and the trade sector. It is from Russia that the dominant volume of private transfers comes to Armenia. At the same time, the Central Bank improved its forecast for GDP growth for 2019, establishing a range of 6.7-7.2% (an average of 6.9%), against the previous 5.9-7.4% (an average of 6.6%).
Recall that for 2018, the influx of transfers of individuals to Armenia slowed down growth to 1.7% from 14.6% in 2017, amounting to $ 1.786 billion, and the growth rate of outflows of transfers slowed slightly - from 21.2% in 2017 to 20.1% in 2018, amounting to $ 1.188 billion. This worsened the dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from 7.1% growth in 2017 to 22.1% decline in 2018, forming at the level of $ 597.2 million. In inflow of 2018, the share of Russia decreased from 60.6% to 58.8%, and in the outflow, on the contrary, increased from 38% to 39.7%.