Monday, December 16 2019 17:46

ArmInfo. The World Bank again improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2019 - expecting 6.9%, against the previous 5.5%.

Earlier, in the June forecast, the WB's expectations for the growth  of Armenia's GDP for 2019 were lower - 4.2%, in the October report,  expectations increased to 5.5%.

According to the December report of WB experts, the next forecast  improvement is based on the serious results of economic development  during the reporting year. In particular, GDP growth in the Q3 was  7.9% per annum, and for 9 months - by 7.5% per annum, after which, in  October, economic activity showed a y- o-y growth of 7.7%. The  services sector, trade and the industrial sector drive the growth in  economic activity, with higher growth in the industrial sector due to  the upward trend in the mining sector and the upward trend in the  manufacturing sector, while volumes continue to shrink in  agriculture.

According to the previous WB October forecast, the service sector and  the industrial sector will act as drivers of economic growth in  2019-2021, and the agricultural sector, according to experts, will  gradually emerge from the recession and accelerate the ascent.  

It should be noted that for 2020 the WB forecasts the growth of the  Armenian economy by 5.1%, increasing it in October from 4.9%.  The   IMF, in turn, forecasts Armenia's GDP growth in 2019 by 4.6% with a  slowdown in 2020 to 4.5%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia  forecasts it in the range of 6.7-7.2%. For 2020, the Central Bank and  the government came up with a similar forecast for growth from the  IMF.  

According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia,  the growth of economic activity in January-October 2019 accelerated  to 7.1% from 6% for 10 months of 2018, and the main drivers were the  services sector, trade and the industrial sector. In particular, the  growth of the services sector amounted to 15.1% per annum, of trade -  8.9%, of the industrial sector - 8.8%, against the growth of 18.5%,  9.6% and 4.5%, respectively, in January-October of 2018. Moreover,  the acceleration of the growth rate of the industrial sector was due  to a reversal of the mining industry trend towards a 20.5% growth  from a 13% decline a year earlier, and the upward trend in the  manufacturing industry was maintained - 8% against 10% a year  earlier.