ArmInfo.The latest official statistics on the Armenian economy contain certain and inexplicable contradictions. Former Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia, economist Bagrat Asatryan expressed such an opinion to ArmInfo.
"In particular, as recorded by statistics, the long-term decline in the agricultural sector does not correlate with the volume of processing of agricultural products or the characteristics of its consumption. The second example is a 50% drop in freight traffic in Armenia in 2019. This indicator is generally unclear in the context of economic growth," he noted.
According to expert estimates, positive shifts in a number of sectors of the economy simply could not take place in the conditions of similar trends in the field of domestic cargo transportation. And the same drop of 60% of road freight transportation within the republic, in his opinion, is directly opposite to statistical data. In this light, Asatryan sees the need for the intervention of the prosecution authorities in order to identify the causes of these contradictions.
According to the preliminary data of the Armenian Statistical Committee for 2019, the Armenian economy completed last year with an economic activity growth rate of 7.8%. In particular, the volume of services grew by 11%, foreign trade turnover - by 10.4%, industrial products - by 9%. At the same time, the volume of agricultural gross output fell by 4.2%, and electricity production decreased by 1.9%. It is possible that the final results will differ from those presented.
In general, Asatryan is convinced that, even demonstrating a very impressive growth in activity in 2019, the Armenian economy has big holes, unresolved problems and is deprived of balanced development. Assessing economic activity at 7.8% as an unambiguously good indicator, moreover, both in the ratio of the planned indicator and in relation to the results of 2018, the economist sees problems and contradictions in its structure and quality.
According to him, the prevalence of economic activity in the services and trade, in general, is not bad. at first glance, the second place occupied by industry, is also not bad. However, Asatryan points out that when considering the structure of growth rates, it is noticeable that already in the second half of 2019, the mining industry became the locomotive and leader of this activity. Given the absence of growth in employment or production volumes, the expert estimates this indicator as a consequence of the elementary acceleration of the theft of mineral resources.
The economist is also concerned about the prevailing prevalence of growth in import volumes over export volumes. According to his estimates, the decline in the agricultural sector contributes to this, with all its attendant consequences. The decline in electricity consumption, according to his estimates, looks rather strange, given the lack of visible achievements in the field of energy conservation. Moreover, the latter circumstance, in turn, gives cause for concern.
