ArmInfo.Overcoming the $ 25 oil barrel threshold will usher in a global recession. At the same time, certain prerequisites for such a scenario are already visible. The director of the Institute for Energy Security, member of the political council of the One Armenia party Vahe Davtyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"The reports of relevant analytical centers published back in the middle of last year justified the future economic crisis in 2020. However, at this stage it's too early to talk about a global economic recession. In principle, the situation today is quite predictable. Back in 2019- It was clear that the days of the cartel agreement within OPEC were numbered, respectively, and the current oil crisis was quite expected, "said the expert.
Starting March 8, the drop in oil prices on the international market exceeded 30%. After OPEC and Russia could not agree to reduce oil production and prevent deflation, Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, announced a sharp increase in oil production, which led to a drop in prices.
At the same time, according to his forecasts, even if the psychological price drop of $ 25 is overcome, Russia, unlike other market players, will be able to maintain stability in the oil and gas sector. This is due to the rather low cost of oil production in Russia. The latter, according to his estimates, allows Moscow to carry out budget planning for the coming years even in such conditions.
Davtyan does not connect the observed processes solely with the economy, according to his estimates, there are also geopolitical, artificially created trends. In particular, fit into the confrontation between the United States and Russia. According to the expert, the current processes, in general, correspond to the foreign economic and geopolitical interests of the United States.
"In this light, the hypersensitivity of the market precisely in the days of the appearance in the State Duma of the bill introducing constitutional amendments that further strengthen Putin's power after 2024 is by no means accidental. To this should be added the observed strengthening of Russia's position in the Middle East and Libya. Thus, I I assess what is happening as part of the engagement of the US and its allies with the oil factor against Russia, "Davtyan concluded.
