Saturday, April 4 2020 14:09
Karine Melikyan

According to the forecast of ADB in Armenia in 2020, export growth  will slow down to 2.5%, and imports to 7.5%

According to the forecast of ADB in Armenia in 2020, export growth  will slow down to 2.5%, and imports to 7.5%

ArmInfo.According to the forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Armenia, a slowdown in foreign trade turnover is expected in 2020, with a slight  acceleration in 2021. In particular, export growth will slow sharply  to 2.5% in 2020, with an acceleration to 7.5% in 2021, while import  growth will slow to 7.5% in 2020 with the continuation of this trend  and to 6.5 in 2021 % This forecast was published on April 3 in the  ADB economic report, Asian Development Outlook 2020.

"Armenia's main trading partners are likely to be disadvantaged by  the latest developments in the global economy: the spread of COVID 19  and a sharp decline in world oil prices. This poses a threat to  Armenia's economic prospects, "the ADB report noted.

In neighboring countries, ADB expects a slowdown in foreign trade in  Georgia: export growth will slow to 3.6% in 2020 with a jump to 11.9%  in 2021, while import growth will slightly accelerate to 1.1% in  2020, after which 2021 will jump to 7%. And in Azerbaijan's foreign  trade, it is projected to reverse the dynamics of imports from growth  by a 37.8% decline in 2020 with a yield of 23.5% growth in 2021,  while exports will deepen the decline to 32.7% in 2020 24.4% increase  in 2021

According to the ADB forecast, from 2020 in Kazakhstan, import  reversal is expected from import growth from an 11.7% decline in 2020  with an output of 11.5% growth in 2021, while exports will deepen the  decline to 35, 4% in 2020 with a 42.2% increase in 2021. And in  Kyrgyzstan, export growth will slow down slightly - up to 7% in 2020,  maintaining this pace in 2021, while imports will linger in decline -  with the pace accelerating to 7% in 2020 and the subsequent slowdown  in 521 to 5%.

The ADB report also shows forecasts for some CIS countries. In  particular, Tajikistan's foreign trade is expected to stagnate in  import at 0% in 2020 with a 5% increase in 2021, while export growth  is projected to accelerate to 10% in 2020, maintaining this pace in  2021. In Uzbekistan, the upward trend in foreign trade will continue:  exports will slow down growth to 12% in 2020 with a subsequent  acceleration in 2021 to 25%, while import growth will accelerate to  20% in 2020, after which the pace will slow down in 2021 to 14%. In  Turkmenistan, exports will slow down growth to 7% in 2020 with some  recovery in 2021 to 7.9%, while imports will accelerate growth to  5.4% in 2020 with the continuation of this trend and to 20% in 2021.

It should be noted that according to the March forecast of the  Central Bank of Armenia, foreign trade expectations are pessimistic  for 2020, in particular, imports are expected to fall by 9-11%  (versus actual growth in 2019 by 9.1%) and exports by 5-7 % (against  the actual growth in 2019 by 10.3%). This will have a negative impact  on real GDP, according to which the Central Bank of the Republic of  Armenia forecasts a slowdown in growth in 2020 to a stagnant 0.7%  (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).

According to the RA Statcommittee, the foreign trade turnover of  Armenia slowed down the growth in January-December 2019 to 10.4% from  16.4% in 2018, amounting to $ 8.1 billion. In particular, exports  accelerated growth from 7.8% to 9.4%, amounting to $ 2.6 billion,  while imports, on the contrary, slowed down growth from 21.1% to  10.8%, amounting to $ 5.5 billion. The volume of foreign trade of  Armenia with the EAEU countries grew over the 12 months of 2019 by  15.1% per annum, and with the EU countries, on the contrary ,  decreased by 5.7%, while a year earlier growth was recorded in both  directions - by 11.3% and 19%, respectively. Moreover, the export of  Armenian goods to the EAEU countries slowed down growth from 20.7% to  10.5%, while import growth accelerated from 6.9% to 17.6%, while  exports and imports fell into decline with EU countries -  respectively by 14.7% and 0.4% (against growth a year earlier by 7.9%  and 26.8%). The growth in foreign trade between Armenia and Russia in  2019 accelerated to 14.9% from 11.2% in 2018, which was triggered by  an acceleration in the growth of imports from 7.2% to 17.4%, with a  slowdown in export growth from 19.6% up to 10.3%. In the structure of  Armenia's foreign trade, Russia holds the first place in terms of  foreign trade, export and import.

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