ArmInfo.According to the forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Armenia, a slowdown in foreign trade turnover is expected in 2020, with a slight acceleration in 2021. In particular, export growth will slow sharply to 2.5% in 2020, with an acceleration to 7.5% in 2021, while import growth will slow to 7.5% in 2020 with the continuation of this trend and to 6.5 in 2021 % This forecast was published on April 3 in the ADB economic report, Asian Development Outlook 2020.
"Armenia's main trading partners are likely to be disadvantaged by the latest developments in the global economy: the spread of COVID 19 and a sharp decline in world oil prices. This poses a threat to Armenia's economic prospects, "the ADB report noted.
In neighboring countries, ADB expects a slowdown in foreign trade in Georgia: export growth will slow to 3.6% in 2020 with a jump to 11.9% in 2021, while import growth will slightly accelerate to 1.1% in 2020, after which 2021 will jump to 7%. And in Azerbaijan's foreign trade, it is projected to reverse the dynamics of imports from growth by a 37.8% decline in 2020 with a yield of 23.5% growth in 2021, while exports will deepen the decline to 32.7% in 2020 24.4% increase in 2021
According to the ADB forecast, from 2020 in Kazakhstan, import reversal is expected from import growth from an 11.7% decline in 2020 with an output of 11.5% growth in 2021, while exports will deepen the decline to 35, 4% in 2020 with a 42.2% increase in 2021. And in Kyrgyzstan, export growth will slow down slightly - up to 7% in 2020, maintaining this pace in 2021, while imports will linger in decline - with the pace accelerating to 7% in 2020 and the subsequent slowdown in 521 to 5%.
The ADB report also shows forecasts for some CIS countries. In particular, Tajikistan's foreign trade is expected to stagnate in import at 0% in 2020 with a 5% increase in 2021, while export growth is projected to accelerate to 10% in 2020, maintaining this pace in 2021. In Uzbekistan, the upward trend in foreign trade will continue: exports will slow down growth to 12% in 2020 with a subsequent acceleration in 2021 to 25%, while import growth will accelerate to 20% in 2020, after which the pace will slow down in 2021 to 14%. In Turkmenistan, exports will slow down growth to 7% in 2020 with some recovery in 2021 to 7.9%, while imports will accelerate growth to 5.4% in 2020 with the continuation of this trend and to 20% in 2021.
It should be noted that according to the March forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, foreign trade expectations are pessimistic for 2020, in particular, imports are expected to fall by 9-11% (versus actual growth in 2019 by 9.1%) and exports by 5-7 % (against the actual growth in 2019 by 10.3%). This will have a negative impact on real GDP, according to which the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia forecasts a slowdown in growth in 2020 to a stagnant 0.7% (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).
According to the RA Statcommittee, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia slowed down the growth in January-December 2019 to 10.4% from 16.4% in 2018, amounting to $ 8.1 billion. In particular, exports accelerated growth from 7.8% to 9.4%, amounting to $ 2.6 billion, while imports, on the contrary, slowed down growth from 21.1% to 10.8%, amounting to $ 5.5 billion. The volume of foreign trade of Armenia with the EAEU countries grew over the 12 months of 2019 by 15.1% per annum, and with the EU countries, on the contrary , decreased by 5.7%, while a year earlier growth was recorded in both directions - by 11.3% and 19%, respectively. Moreover, the export of Armenian goods to the EAEU countries slowed down growth from 20.7% to 10.5%, while import growth accelerated from 6.9% to 17.6%, while exports and imports fell into decline with EU countries - respectively by 14.7% and 0.4% (against growth a year earlier by 7.9% and 26.8%). The growth in foreign trade between Armenia and Russia in 2019 accelerated to 14.9% from 11.2% in 2018, which was triggered by an acceleration in the growth of imports from 7.2% to 17.4%, with a slowdown in export growth from 19.6% up to 10.3%. In the structure of Armenia's foreign trade, Russia holds the first place in terms of foreign trade, export and import.