ArmInfo.The previous forecast of the Central Bank on GDP growth was voiced based on the solution of issues relevant at that time. On April 16, Martin Galstyan, candidate for the post of chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia, said this the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia.
<Before the meeting of the Central Bank Board, we should have had some forecasts, and according to the baseline scenario, we expected a slight positive growth. However, today a lot of things have changed>, he said, emphasizing that since then all the signals received from the outside world have been negative. In this regard, the candidate for the post of head of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia noted that expectations related to economic growth will be slightly adjusted downward.
In particular, Galstyan emphasized that, taking into account the fact that the current crisis is primarily a public health one, voicing any new forecasts will be an extremely thankless task. However, in his opinion, according to the baseline scenario, as soon as the health problem disappears, there will be increasing growth in Armenia.
To recall, according to the latest forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the impact of coronavirus on the economy will slow down the growth of Armenia's GDP in 2020 to a stagnant 0.7% (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019). In 2021, growth is expected to recover to 7.2%. This is set out in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program (MCP) for the first quarter of 2020.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a drop in Armenia's GDP in 2020 to -1.5%. According to a new forecast of the World Bank, the GDP growth of Armenia in 2020 will be 1.7% (according to the baseline scenario), with an acceleration in 2021 to 4.5% and in 2022 to 4.7%. Fitch in its April report predicted a slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth in 2020 to 0.5%.
