Wednesday, May 6 2020 11:57

ArmInfo.In Armenia, economic activity in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2019 slowed to 4%. According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, the energy complex - 14.8% and the industrial sector - 8.7%, and to a lesser extent the services sector - 5.7% and the trade sector - 0.2%, acted as growth drivers, and the agricultural sector out of the decline by 4 , 5% growth, and this time the construction sector turned in the direction of recession - 9.4%. Compared to last year's pace, growth accelerated in the industrial sector, growth slowed down in the services and trade sectors, exit from recession to growth in the agricultural sector and energy sector, and a turn from growth to decline in the construction sector. A year earlier, in January-March 2019, compared to January-March 2018, economic activity slowed down from 10.6% to 6.5%, amid a decline in exports by 8.6% and imports by 3.1%. Growth was then recorded to a greater extent in the services sector - by 17.3%, the construction sector - by 10.8%, the trade sector - by 10.1%, amid the modest growth of the industrial sector by 2%, and the decline in the agricultural sector and energy sector by 0.2% and 14% respectively. Meanwhile, in March 2020, compared with February (on a monthly basis), economic activity was in stagnation (against a 14.8% growth in March 2019). Moreover, in addition to the construction sector, which showed an increase of 14%, all other industries have declined:  the energy sector - 15.4%, the services sector - 5.3%, the trade sector - 3.5% and the industrial sector - 2%, and in the agricultural sector statistics for the month are not indicated. A year earlier, in March 2019 compared with February, all sectors showed growth: the construction sector - 61.1%, the industrial sector - 16.1%, the services sector - 10.8%, the energy sector - 9.3%, the trade sector - 6, 7%, and for the agricultural sector, data for the month are not available.     In the annual context (March 2020 to March 2019), economic activity unfolded from a 6.2% increase to a 4.7% decline. This is due to the deterioration of dynamics in all sectors, and a particularly impressive decline was recorded in the construction sector - by 26.2%, followed by a downward trend: trade - 9.9%, services - 4.3%, industrial sector - 1, 9%, the energy sector - 1%, and data on the agricultural sector are not given in the statistical report. A year earlier, in March 2019 to March 2018, these industries were growing with a tendency to slow down:  the service sector - from 18.8% to 16.9%, the retail sector - from 6.3% to 5.3%, the industrial sector - from 8.2% to 2.2%, the energy complex - from 6.9% to 3.4%, the construction sector - from 23.2% to 0.5%. According to the statistics in the first quarter of 2020, the trading sector holds the leadership in absolute terms with the volume of 657.5 billion drams ($ 1.4 billion). The second place in terms of services is 452.4 billion drams ($ 937.9 million), the third is the industrial sector - 450.4 billion ($ 933.8 million), the fourth is the agricultural sector - 73.6 billion drams ($ 152.6 million), and the fifth is the construction sector - 43.9 billion drams ($ 91 million). The volume of electricity generation in January-March 2020 amounted to 2083.3 million kWh, of which only in March - 622 million kWh. The industrial production price index decreased in January-March 2020 compared to the same period last year by 0.1%, only in March it decreased by 0.4%, and compared with March 2019 it decreased by 1.7%, while As a year earlier, the dynamics was as follows: in January-March 2019 - an increase of 0.3% y / y, in March - an increase of 0.7%, compared with March 2018 - an increase of 3%. At the same time, the foreign trade turnover of Armenia in the I quarter of 2020 amounted to 753.9 billion drams ($ 1565.1 million) with an annual decline of 4%. In its structure, the volume of exports underwent annual growth of 0.2% to 262.4 billion drams ($ 544.9 million), while imports - a decline of 6.2% to 491.5 billion drams ($ 1020.2 million). In March 2020 alone, foreign trade turnover decreased by 7.9% due to a decline in exports by 13.3% and imports by 4.9%. In March 2020 to March 2019, the decline in exports by 17.4% and imports by 15.3%, reduced foreign trade by 16%. A year earlier, in January-March 2019, foreign trade turnover experienced an annual decline of 5% due to a decline in imports by 3.1% and exports by 8.6%; in March 2019, imports grew by 8.8% and exports by 7.5% ensured an increase in foreign trade turnover by 8.4%, compared with March 2018, a decrease in foreign trade turnover by 0.4% was triggered by a decline in exports by 2.5% with an increase in imports by 0.8%.  The average settlement rate of dram in March 2020 was 489.01 dr / $ 1, and in January-March - 482.32 dr / $ 1, against 487.48 dr / $ 1 in March 2019 and 487.23 dr / $ 1- in January-March 2019 It should be noted that the RA government forecasts a 2% drop in GDP for 2020.  According to WB forecasts, Armenia's GDP growth in 2020 will amount to 1.7% (according to the baseline scenario), but the likelihood of a recession is not excluded. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the WB forecasts for 2020 a decline in exports and imports by 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The IMF predicts a 1.5% drop in GDP in Armenia for 2020. The CBA forecast foreshadows a slowdown in GDP growth in 2020 to a stagnant 0.7% (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019). Recall that in Armenia, as part of measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, a state of emergency was introduced from March 16, which will last until May 14 inclusive. In this regard, some activities in the first month of emergency were imposed a temporary ban, which was partially lifted in the second half of April.