ArmInfo. The inflow of private transfers of individuals to Armenia turned the annual dynamics in the first quarter of 2020 towards a 9.7% decline from the 9.3% growth in the first quarter of 2019, amounting to $ 353.6 million in absolute terms.
According to the report of the Central Bank of Armenia, the same trend deterioration was observed in the outflow of transfers - there was a reversal from 4.8% growth to 7.1% decline, the volume of which amounted to $ 266.2 million.
As a result, the annual dynamics of net inflow changed from a 23.5% growth in the first quarter of 2019 to a 16.7% decline following the results of the first quarter of 2020, with an absolute decline to $ 87.4 million. At the same time, the inflow of transfers from the main donor of Armenia - the Russian Federation in the first quarter of 2020 accelerated the annual decline from 3% to 16%. The dynamics of the outflow of transfers from Armenia to the Russian Federation also unfolded in the direction of the 27.6% decline, against the 18.2% growth a year earlier. This brought the annual dynamics of the net inflow of transfers from Russia from the 24.4% decline in the first quarter of 2019 to a 2.4% growth in the first quarter of 2020. In absolute figures, the inflow from Russia amounted to $ 164.4 million in the first quarter of 2020, and the outflow to Russia - $ 86.7 million, which formed a net inflow of $ 77.7 million.
The deterioration of the dynamics is observed for transfers in the direction of the United States. In particular, the annual growth in inflows from the United States slowed down sharply - from 29.7% in the first quarter of 2019 to 9.7% in the first quarter of 2020, with a reversal of the outflow trend in the USA from 7.8% growth to 34.3% the recession. As a result, the inflow of transfers from the United States amounted to $ 63 million in the first quarter of 2020, and the outflow of $ 34.6 million), forming a net inflow in this direction at the level of $ 28.4 million.
According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, in 2020 a significant reduction in the remittances of individuals is expected. The Central Bank predicts a reduction of 16-19%. The reasons are a slowdown in the Russian economy, a significant devaluation of the ruble in the conditions of a sharp decline in oil prices and the main factor is a reduction in the flow of labor migrants from Armenia to Russia due to closed borders and the accompanying economic crisis. Today, Russia's share in the structure of private transfers inflows has already decreased in annual terms from 59% to 54%.
