ArmInfo. Risks in the banking system of Armenia today associated with the uncertainty of the situation with the coronavirus pandemic are manageable even in the worst-case development scenario. This opinion was held May 26 during an online press conference, answering a question from ArmInfo, expressed by Executive Director of the Union of Banks of Armenia (UBA) Seyran Sargsyan.
"In today's situation, the greatest risk to the banking system is uncertainty. We do not know how long the slowdown in economic development will drag on, what impact the deepening of this situation will have, and what the consequences will be for customers. I think that even in the worst case scenario, these risks manageable. But, unfortunately, the uncertainty is still high, "S. Sargsyan emphasized.
It should be noted that according to the statistical data in Armenia, economic activity in January-April 2020 decreased by 1.7% per annum (against 7% growth a year earlier), against the backdrop of a decline in exports and imports by 8.1% and 11.5%, respectively . According to WB forecasts, Armenia's GDP growth in 2020 will amount to 1.7% (according to the baseline scenario), but the likelihood of a decline is also possible. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the WB forecasts for 2020 a decline in exports and imports by 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The IMF predicts a 1.5% drop in GDP in Armenia for 2020. The Government of the Republic of Armenia predicts a 2% drop in GDP for 2020. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, in 2020, imports will decrease by 9-11% (against the actual growth in 2019 by 9.1%), and exports - by 5-7% (against the actual growth in 2019 by 10.3%), which will have a negative impact on real GDP, which is expected to slow down to stagnant 0.7% (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).
Recall that in Armenia, as part of measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, a state of emergency was introduced from March 16, which will last until June 13. In this regard, many types of economic activities in the first month of emergency were imposed a temporary ban, which was partially lifted in the second half of April. Since May 4, the list of permitted types of business activities has been further expanded to ensure the vital functions of the economy, and since May 18, the ban has been lifted almost completely. From the same day, public transport (including the metro) and many public catering facilities and services began to operate, but so far the activities of international air, rail, and bus services have been limited.
