Tuesday, May 26 2020 21:41
Alina Hovhannisyan

UBA: Risks in the banking system of Armenia are manageable even in  the worst case scenario

UBA: Risks in the banking system of Armenia are manageable even in  the worst case scenario

ArmInfo. Risks in the banking system of Armenia today associated with the uncertainty of the situation with the coronavirus pandemic are manageable even in the worst-case development scenario. This opinion was held May 26 during  an online press conference, answering a question from ArmInfo,  expressed by Executive Director of the Union of Banks of Armenia  (UBA) Seyran Sargsyan.

"In today's situation, the greatest risk to the banking system is  uncertainty. We do not know how long the slowdown in economic  development will drag on, what impact the deepening of this situation  will have, and what the consequences will be for customers. I think  that even in the worst case scenario, these risks manageable. But,  unfortunately, the uncertainty is still high, "S. Sargsyan  emphasized.

It should be noted that according to the statistical data in Armenia,  economic activity in January-April 2020 decreased by 1.7% per annum  (against 7% growth a year earlier), against the backdrop of a decline  in exports and imports by 8.1% and 11.5%, respectively . According to  WB forecasts, Armenia's GDP growth in 2020 will amount to 1.7%  (according to the baseline scenario), but the likelihood of a decline  is also possible. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the WB  forecasts for 2020 a decline in exports and imports by 1.5% and 2.6%,  respectively. The IMF predicts a 1.5% drop in GDP in Armenia for  2020. The Government of the Republic of Armenia predicts a 2% drop in  GDP for 2020. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of the  Republic of Armenia, in 2020, imports will decrease by 9-11% (against  the actual growth in 2019 by 9.1%), and exports - by 5-7% (against  the actual growth in 2019 by 10.3%), which will have a negative  impact on real GDP, which is expected to slow down to stagnant 0.7%  (from the actual 7.6% growth in 2019).

Recall that in Armenia, as part of measures to prevent the spread of  the coronavirus pandemic, a state of emergency was introduced from  March 16, which will last until June 13. In this regard, many types  of economic activities in the first month of emergency were imposed a  temporary ban, which was partially lifted in the second half of  April. Since May 4, the list of permitted types of business  activities has been further expanded to ensure the vital functions of  the economy, and since May 18, the ban has been lifted almost  completely. From the same day, public transport (including the metro)  and many public catering facilities and services began to operate,  but so far the activities of international air, rail, and bus  services have been limited. 

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