ArmInfo. In January-April 2020, the state debt of Armenia increased by 1.1% (against the decline by 0.3% a year earlier), having exceeded the mark of $ 7.4 billion (3.6 trillion drams). According to the RA Statistical Committee, in January-April 2020, external debt decreased by 1.5% to $ 5.7 billion (2.7 trillion drams), and domestic debt grew by 10.8% to $ 1.7 billion (691.3 billion drams), repeating last year's multidirectional dynamics at a more accelerated pace (in January-April 2019, the decline in external debt by 1.3% was accompanied by an increase in domestic debt by 3.4%).
In y-o-y terms (in April 2020 against April 2019), the state debt of Armenia sharply accelerated growth from 0.5% to 7.3%. This was triggered by a reversal in the y-o-y dynamics of external debt from a 1.3% decline to 4.4% growth, and a sharp acceleration in the growth rate of domestic debt from 7.7% to 18.5%.
In January-April 2020, the Government's share in the structure of external debt decreased from 91.6% to 91.3% (against 90% a year earlier), while the Central Bank's share increased from 8.4% to 8.7% (against 10% a year earlier), amounting to $ 5.2 billion and $ 494.8 million in absolute terms, respectively. For January-April this year the external debt of the Government decreased by 1.7%, and the Central Bank's debt increased by 1.1%, while a year earlier in the same period in both cases an almost identical decline was recorded - by 1.3% and 1.2% respectively. The y-o-y dynamics of the external debt of the Government and the Central Bank also turned out to be multidirectional: government external debt increased by 5.9% with the Central Bank's debt decline by 9%, while a year earlier in both cases there was a decline - by 0.2% and 10.3%, respectively.
Government bonds dominate in the structure of the domestic public debt - in January-April 2020, the share decreased from 91.9% to 91.8% ($ 1.6 billion or 749.3 billion drams), with y-o-y growth in absolute value by 26%. The Armenian Eurobonds come next- $ 140.7 million or AMD 67.5 billion, the share of which increased from 8.1% to 8.2% in January-April, with a y-o-y decline in absolute value by 24.6%. And the portfolio of internal guarantees was nullified from August 2019, but in April of that year they accounted for 0.6% or $ 9 million. In January-April 2020 alone, domestic debt in government bonds grew by 10.6% (against 2.7% growth a year earlier), and on Eurobonds - by 13.5% (against 8.1% growth a year earlier). A year earlier, in April 2019, government bonds accounted for 86.4% of the structure of the domestic public debt, with y-o-y growth of the absolute value by 5.8%, followed by Eurobonds - 13%, with the y-o-y growth of the absolute value by 23.4%, and the share of guarantees amounted to 0.6%, with no y-o-y changes.
According to the April forecast of the World Bank, instead of the previously expected decrease, the ratio of the state debt of Armenia to GDP is now expected to increase to 57.2% in 2020 from the actual 53.5% in 2019, with a further decrease in 2021 to 56.5% and in 2022 year to 55.8%. But this forecast was envisaged with a slowdown in Armenia's GDP growth in 2020 to 1.7% (according to the baseline scenario), in connection with the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. However, on June 8, the World Bank updated its forecast of global economic prospects in the context of the crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic, worsening expectations towards a recession, in particular, the updated WB forecast predicts a 2.8% drop in Armenia's GDP in 2020 with a 4,9% growth in 2021.
To recall, by January 1, 2020, the total state debt of Armenia was 3.5 trillion drams or $ 7.3 billion, in the structure of which the external debt was 2.8 trillion drams or $ 5.8 billion, and the domestic debt was 737.2 billion drams or $ 1.5 billion. The state debt of Armenia increased by 5,8% in 2019 due to an increase in external debt by 4.6% with an increase in domestic debt by 10.7%.
