ArmInfo.The recession in the Armenian economy will continue. On September 18 from the rostrum of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia the MP from the opposition "Prosperous Armenia" faction Mikael Melkumyan stated this.
According to him, back in April of this year, the government in its forecasts indicated a decline in the country's GDP by only 2 percentage points. However, today it is already obvious that this indicator will not be met. This, the MP noted, is evidenced by the statement of the Central Bank of Armenia, which predicted a decline in the country's GDP in 2020 to 6.2%. "We previously warned the government about the unreality of the April forecast, and now we are waiting for representatives of the executive body in the parliament with a report both on the work performed and on the draft budget of the country in 2021," Mikael Melkumyan said.
The MP also pointed to the expected 12% decline in tax revenues, which is evidenced by the situation in the service sector, construction and industry, and this, in turn, will lead to a change in the budget deficit indicators. "How and by what means the executive body will close the state budget deficit should also be the subject of serious discussion," the deputy noted.
Recall that on September 15, during a press conference, the head of the Central Bank Martin Galstyan stated that the Central Bank has worsened the forecast for a decline in Armenia's GDP in 2020 - to 6.2% from the previous 4%. He explained that such a forecast is mainly due to a decrease in private consumption by 9.4% (against the previously expected decline of 6.3%). In the updated forecast, the Central Bank also worsened expectations towards a larger decline in 2020 in the construction sector - to 18.7% (from the previous 11.2%), in the service sector - to 6.1% (from the previous 4.3%), in the agricultural sector - up to 1.1% (from the previous 0.4%), as well as tax collections - up to 12.1% (from the previous 5.4%). M. Galstyan said that the industrial sector in 2020 will also be in decline - by 2%, against the previously forecast minus 2.2%. At the same time, according to the baseline scenario, the Central Bank expects a reduction in private investment by 20% (against the previously predicted 14.7% decline).
As for inflation, as Martin Galstyan noted, the Central Bank predicts inflation at 2.5% by the end of 2020, which corresponds to the lower threshold of the acceptable range for the baseline scenario. Note that according to the updated in early June this year. According to the World Bank's forecast for 2020, a decline in GDP is expected in Armenia by 2.8%. In its April forecast, the IMF expected a 1.5% decline in Armenia's GDP in 2020 (there is no updated version yet), but the IMF's deteriorated estimates of the global economy and Russia's GDP decline in June would deepen the negative forecast for Armenia's GDP.