ArmInfo. The ban on the import of Turkish goods to Armenia for Turkey, even if it is a "drop in the bucket", will still have an impact. Economist, former mayor of Yerevan Vahagn Khachatryan said this at a press conference on October 28. The expert conditioned his opinion on the existing difficulties of the Turkish economy.
In particular, he noted that the embargo by Armenia does not have such a significant impact on the Turkish economy, as a similar decision on the part of Saudi Arabia, whose trade turnover is $ 3 billion (with Armenia, the trade turnover is about $ 270 million), nevertheless it will lead to certain economic difficulties. Saudi Arabia not only stopped importing Turkish goods, it was also decided to close and sell off its business in Turkey. Moreover, about 1.3 million tourists from Saudi Arabia visit Turkey annually, which on average will spend about $ 15 billion for tourism purposes. <In addition to this, it can be noted that 40% of hotels, due to the epidemiological situation, are not loaded with tourists, which is fraught with more serious problems, "he said.
Khachatryan noted that the Turkish economy has been in crisis for the last 3-4 years, which is deepening more and more. This is due, among other things, to military actions, entailing crazy costs. In view of the policy pursued by the authorities, according to the economist, there is an outflow of investors in Turkey. Last year alone, their number fell by 40%. To all these facts, one can add the devaluation of the Turkish lira. In addition, to date, Turkey's total national debt has exceeded 60% of GDP.
''Erdogan took over the duties of the head of the Central Bank, and ordered to issue cheap money. But this is possible only if there is a machine that prints dollars and euros, and if there is none, then the local currency is not enough for such a policy, and today's response to such actions is devaluation, "Khachatryan explained.
He also noted that Moody's and Fitch downgraded Turkey's ratings, bringing it to the level of countries such as Uganda and Rwanda. Due to the lack of independence of the Central Bank, many organizations have no desire to work with Turkey. <That is, even this $ 270 million matter for Turkey and play their role, "he stressed. To note, the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predict a deeper decline in the Turkish economy for 2020 than in Azerbaijan's GDP. According to the June forecasts of the global economic outlook for 2020, the Turkish economy will sag by 3.8% according to the WB estimates, and according to the IMF's expectations, the decline will be more - by 5%. It is pertinent to note that these forecasts were made long before the military actions of Azerbaijan, with the support of Turkey, against the Republic of Artsakh, which began on the morning of September 27 and are ongoing. It is easy to assume that taking these events into account in the new forecasts of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund will further aggravate the negative expectations for the economies of Turkey and Azerbaijan for 2020, as a result of which the prospects for 2021 may be revised towards a long- term recession.