Expert: Armenia will have recovery growth during 2022

ArmInfo. The economies of the member countries of the Eurasian Development Bank will enter the growth phase in 2021. A similar opinion was expressed by the chief  economist of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development  (EFSD) Yevgeny Vinokurov during the video bridge "Economy of the EAEU  countries in 2021 - forecast for Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,  Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan".

The expert determined his opinion by the gradual lifting of  restrictive measures in the second quarter of next year. "The  economies of the EDB member countries will begin to warm up, the  economic engines will start working at full speed, because the  countries will enter a phase of recovery growth. And by the end of  the year, we will get high growth figures, which will also be due to  the external sector, "he said, pointing in this regard to the  expected growth of the economies of the United States, the Eurozone  and China, which will directly affect the economic processes of the  Eurasian space. However, a full recovery of the economies of the  Union countries (with the exception of Kazakhstan) should be expected  during 2022, or at the beginning of 2023.

"The growth will be uneven, which is associated with the state  support packages, which played a role during the crisis period,  preventing the economies from falling even deeper and, depending on  their effectiveness, will affect the pace of recovery," Vinokurov  said. With regard to Armenia, Senior Economist of the Eurasian  Development Bank Aleksey Kuznetsov noted that according to the  baseline scenario, Armenia is expected to end 2020 with an economic  decline of 6.4%. "According to our estimates, Armenia will enter  recovery growth during 2022," he said. In particular, he said,  inflation will slow down in 2021, due to the preservation of  restrained domestic demand, lower pressure from exchange rates and  world food prices. The economist noted that next year the exchange  rate of the Armenian dram will be 495 AMD / $.

At the same time, he said that according to the baseline scenario, an  increase in the volume of remittances is expected in 2021, which is  associated with the recovery of economic growth in the Russian  Federation.  <This will support Armenia's GDP by 0.5 p.p. which will  affect the income of the population and support consumer activity>,  he added.  To recall, a day earlier, during the briefing, Assistant  to the Chairperson of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission  (EEC) Iya Malkina said that in connection with the second wave of the  coronavirus pandemic, according to updated forecasts, the GDP growth  rate of the Eurasian Economic Union states in 2020 will decrease by  about 3.9 %, with growth recovering in 2021 by 3.2%. It should be  noted that, according to the latest forecast of the RA Ministry of  Finance, Armenia will end 2020 with a 7.9% economic decline, while  growth recovers in 2021 - by 3.2%. According to the latest forecast  of the World Bank for 2020 (October, 2020), the GDP decline in  Armenia will be 6.3%, against the previously expected 2.8% and actual  7.6% growth in 2019. In 2021, the WB expects Armenia's GDP to grow by  4.6%.