Tuesday, December 8 2020 19:06

ArmInfo.The national debt of Armenia in October 2020 increased by 1.5%, after the September decline by 1.4%, which is due to the reversal of the dynamics of  domestic debt from 1.7% decline to 6.8% growth while the decline in  external debt slowed from 1.3% to 0.1%.

As a result, the state debt of Armenia by November 2020 amounted to $  7.976 billion (3.9 trillion drams), in particular, the external debt  - $ 5.970 billion (2.9 trillion drams), and the internal debt - $  2.01 billion (990.2 billion drams). This is evidenced by the data of  the Ministry of Finance of the RA published by the Statistical  Committee.

In January-October 2020, the national debt of Armenia increased by 9%  (against growth by 2.8% in 10 months of 2019). Moreover, a modest  ten-month increase in external debt by 3.2% was accompanied by a jump  in domestic debt by 30.5%, while a year earlier the upward pace was  much more modest - a stagnant 0.7% increase in external debt was  accompanied by an increase in domestic debt by 11. 4%.

In y-o-y terms (in October 2020 versus October 2019), the state debt  of Armenia accelerated growth from 6% to 12.4%. This was triggered by  a moderate acceleration in the growth of external debt from 3.7% to  6.6%, with a significant acceleration in the growth of domestic debt  from 15.4% to 34%.

In the structure of external debt, 92.1% or $ 5.5 billion are the  share of the government, and the remaining 7.9% or $ 477.3 million -  the share of the Central Bank, against 90.8% and 9.2% a year earlier.  Moreover, the external debt of the government accelerated the annual  growth from 6.3% to 7.8%, while the external debt of the Central Bank  delayed the decline with a slowdown from 9.4% to 7.2%. In  January-October 2020 alone, the external debt of the government  increased by 3.8%, while the external debt of the Central Bank fell  by 2.5%, similar to the multidirectional dynamics of January-October  2019 - an increase in government debt by 1.5% was accompanied by a  decline in the Central Bank's debt by 6 ,5%.

In the structure of domestic government debt, the dominant share of  government bonds reached 95.3% by November 2020 (against 91.9% a year  earlier), exceeding $ 1.9 billion or 943.9 billion drams, with an  acceleration of the y-o-y growth in absolute value from 21% to 35.7%,  and in January-October, 2020 alone the increase also amounted to  35.7%. This is followed by Armenian Eurobonds - $ 93.8 or 46.3  billion drams, the share of which decreased from 8.1% to 4.7% over  the year, with an acceleration of the annual decline in absolute  value from 20.1% to 24.5%, and in January-October alone the decline  was almost the same - 24.4%. In the structure of domestic public debt  since August 2019 the guarantees, the volume of which since 2017  amounted to $ 9 million, were zeroed.

To note, the World Bank in the updated October forecast worsened  expectations for the ratio of Armenia's public debt to GDP for 2020  towards growth to 63.8% (from the actual 53.5% in 2019), against the  previously expected 57.2%. And for 2021, the World Bank predicts a  slight decrease in this indicator - to 63.6% of GDP. In the same  forecast, the WB worsened expectations for the dynamics of Armenia's  GDP - to a 6.3% decline in 2020 (against the previously expected 2.8%  decline and an actual 7.6% growth in 2019), while in 2021 predicting  GDP growth of 4.6%. According to the Statistical Committee of the  Republic of Armenia, the decline in economic activity in  January-October 2020 amounted to 6.7% per annum, against 7.1% growth  in the same period in 2019.

To recall, by January 1, 2020, the total national debt of Armenia was  3.5 trillion drams or $ 7.3 billion, in the structure of which the  external debt is 2.8 trillion drams or $ 5.8 billion, and the  internal debt is 737.2 billion drams or $ 1.5 billion. The national  debt of Armenia increased by 5,8% in 2019, due to the growth of  external debt by 4.6% with an increase in domestic debt by 10.7%.