ArmInfo. The devaluation of the national currency in Armenia is associated with a number of reasons, first of all, with a decrease in export volumes, transfer inflows, limitation of international donor programs, the inability to leave for labor migrants and a worsening economic situation in the country. A similar opinion was expressed by the chairman of the Republican Union of Employers of Armenia, economist Gagik Makaryan during a press conference on December 16. In particular, he stressed that today the dollar in relation to the dram is about 520-530 AMD / $, the euro has reached 630-640 AMD /EUR. He noted that the Central Bank is now pursuing a restrictive policy, trying to keep the exchange rate at a level acceptable to exporters and not creating serious problems for importers. However, according to Makaryan, the Armenian economy remains more dependent on the dollar. Artificially, in view of the current situation, the profits of exporters are growing, but in this regard, he stressed that the share of exports is 40% of imports. Consequently, currency devaluation can lead to higher prices for certain imported goods.
Makaryan explained the decrease in transfers with the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and martial law, as a result of which citizens directed their funds to help citizens affected by the coronavirus and war. In addition, due to the pandemic, labor migrants of Armenia did not have the opportunity to go abroad to work.
The expert also pointed out the lack of financial resources in the international market, which is why a decrease in the volume of programs implemented by donors, including in Armenia, was recorded. It should be noted that according to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, in Armenia, in conditions of high economic uncertainty in the short term, there are risks of inflation deviation towards growth. However, in the medium term, inflation in Armenia will not exceed 4%. At the same time, the regulator notes that in the consumer market of Armenia for certain goods there is an increase in prices associated with a number of factors, in particular, the rise in prices for food products (due to the rise in their prices on international markets) and the devaluation of the dram.
At the same time, the head of the Central Bank Martin Galstyan noted that the balance sheet portfolio of economic entities adjusted more towards foreign currency, which resulted in the formation of a demand for the US dollar, and this naturally influenced the exchange rate. , he stressed.
