Tuesday, February 2 2021 15:15

ArmInfo. Armenia has the  potential for economic recovery.  Artak Manukyan, deputy of the RA  National Assembly from the "My Step" faction, stated this on February  2 during a video conference.

According to him, the 8% economic decline planned by the government  for 2020 turned out to be quite realistic, if we bear in mind that  according to the data of the RA National Statistical Committee, it  turned out to be at the level of 7.5%. The decline in the country's  GDP is largely due to the spread of COVID-19, which has had an impact  not only on Armenia. The military actions in Karabakh could not but  affect the country's economy. The MP drew attention to the fact that  at the end of last year, the country had a serious decline in export  and import volumes, which indicates the need to diversify  international markets. As before, the mining industry continues to  act as the driver of the country's economy. In some sectors of  agriculture, growth has also been recorded. He noted that in general,  2020 turned out to be an extremely difficult year for the country's  economy. The MP expressed the hope that in 2021 the macroeconomic  indicators laid down in the country's budget for the current year  will be met, and the country's economy will begin a recovery process.  "There shouldn't be any problems in this matter, and let's hope that  the 3.2% GDP growth planned for 2021 will be exceeded," Artak  Manukyan said. He recalled the successful placement of Eurobonds in  the amount of almost $ 750 million. 3.8% indicates the confidence of  foreign investors in the Armenian economy. At the same time, the  deputy stated that the conditions of uncertainty, including political  uncertainty, can lead to some tightening of investment inflows. But  in this direction, the government has taken a number of measures.

In turn, Arkady Khachatryan, NA deputy from the Enlightened Armenia  opposition faction, agreed that 2020 turned out to be extremely  difficult for the country both from an economic and a moral and  psychological point of view. According to him, the declaration of  martial law, lockdown, extension of the quarantine regime could not  but affect the lives of citizens and the country. All these factors  combined led to new economic shocks, both in terms of supply and  demand, and a significant economic downturn was inevitable. As a  result, the social burden on the state budget has sharply increased.  Social expenditures, implementation of anti-crisis measures in the  context of a lockdown led to a significant increase in the state  budget deficit. The fact of a decrease in the volume of tax revenues  is also becoming obvious. In these conditions, an increase in public  debt is inevitable, which in 2020 increased by about $ 650 million.  The most affected areas were tourism, services, as well as a decrease  in trade and a drop in domestic demand, which is largely due to a  sharp drop in imports. Foreign trade was also among the vulnerable,  with a 13.2% decline. Despite the fact that the volume of imports was  slightly lower, which led to some improvement in the overall balance  of goods turnover, nevertheless, the recovery of domestic demand will  continue at a slow pace. Moreover, there is a deterioration of the  economic potential. Its recovery will largely be related to  investment and capital expenditures. As soon as the economic  potential is restored, the recovery of the entire economy of the  country will begin. In addition, the most important task of the  government should be to solve the problem of emigration.

Meanwhile, economist Vahagn Khachatryan called for attention to be  paid to 2021 as the year of economic opportunity. Special attention  should be to give institutions of public administration, in which  significant costs are obvious. Their elimination will improve the  efficiency of the implementation of government programs. If there is  no effective management system, no legislative initiative will help  to rectify the situation and will not serve its purposes. And,  conversely, with an effective management system, both investments and  business activity will appear. It is also necessary to change the  logic of attitudes towards business, especially since one unit of  labor potential was lost during the war. This gap needs to be filled,  and in this context, 2021 will be very difficult. It is necessary to  think and evaluate what was lost, and how to restore everything.  According to the economist, no one will come for the country's  government to solve the problems of Armenia.  Note that, according to  the state budget, in 2021, the GDP growth rate is foreseen at the  level of 3.2%, inflation - 1.5% (plus minus 4%). The revenue side of  the state treasury will amount to AMD 1.569 trillion, the expenditure  side - AMD 2,000 trillion, and the deficit - AMD 341 billion. At the  same time, 139 billion drams will be attracted to cover the deficit  of the state budget from internal sources, and 203 billion drams from  external sources. The main donor to cover the budget deficit will be  the International Monetary Fund, which agreed to provide Armenia with  credit resources for $ 400 million.