Wednesday, March 31 2021 12:52
Karine Melikyan

World Bank improves Armenia`s GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 3.4%

World Bank improves Armenia`s GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 3.4%

ArmInfo.The World Bank (WB) has improved Armenia's projected GDP growth for 2021 to 3.4% (from the previous 3.1%), with an acceleration in 2022 to 4.3%, against an actual decline of 7.6% in 2020.

This is stated in the new March report of the World Bank on the Europe and Central Asia region " Data, Digitalization, and Governance. Economic prospects and  long-term challenges", where the forecasts for 2021-2022 are updated.

In particular, the world Bank forecasts for Armenia in the industry  by accelerating growth in 2021 - 2022 agricultural sector - from 1.3%  to 2.2% (actual vs 1.4 percent growth in 2020), prosector - from 1.2%  to 2.4% (vs. actual of 0.9% on recession in 2020), services from 5.1%  to 5.8%, compared to the actual (actual vs 14,7% on recession in  2020).

The Bank also forecasts for 2021 the growth of exports of goods and  services from Armenia 8.7% with the accelerating pace to 12.2% in  2022, and import growth will accelerate from 8.3% in 2021г to 9.2% in  2022, against the actual recession in 2020 export of 3.9% and imports  increased 17.7 percent.

The World Bank forecasts Armenia's current account deficit at 4.8% of  GDP in 2021, with an increase to 5.5% of GDP in 2022 (against an  estimated 4.2% in 2020).

The World Bank forecasts the ratio of net foreign direct investment  (FDI) to GDP for Armenia at 1.8% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022 (against an  estimated 1.2% in 2020).

In terms of Armenia's public debt, the World Bank forecasts growth to  70.8% of GDP in 2021 (from the actual 67.3% in 2020), with a slight  decrease in 2022 to 70.6% of GDP.

The ratio of the state budget deficit to GDP, according to the World  Bank forecast, will be 5.3% in 2021 (against the actual 5.1% in  2020), with a decrease in 2022 to 3.8%.

The World Bank forecasts inflation in Armenia for 2021 at 3.5% , with  a slight increase in 2022 to 3.8% (against the actual inflation of  3.7% in January-December 2020, with annual inflation of 1.2%).

The World Bank also indicates the projected level of poverty in  Armenia. According to the updated World Bank forecast, the most  vulnerable segment of the population of Armenia in terms of its  poverty level, calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity  (PPP) at a cost of $1.9 per day, will make up 1.3% of the population  in 2021 (against the estimated 1.3% in 2020) and will decrease to  1.1% in 2022. The conditional average layer of the population, namely  those who spend $3.2 per day on existence, based on PPP, in 2021 may  be 11.7% (against an estimated 13.2% in 2020) and will decrease to  10.2% in 2022. And the level of poverty among the broadest layer of  the country's poor, who are able to spend no more than $5.5 a day on  themselves, is projected by the World Bank for 2021 at 48.3% (against  an estimated 51.7% in 2020) and will decrease to 45% in 2022.

It should be noted that the Central Bank of Armenia, on the contrary,  worsened expectations for economic growth from the previous 2% to the  current 1.4%. And the state budget of the Republic of Armenia  provides for GDP growth of 3.2%.

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