ArmInfo.The World Bank (WB) has improved Armenia's projected GDP growth for 2021 to 3.4% (from the previous 3.1%), with an acceleration in 2022 to 4.3%, against an actual decline of 7.6% in 2020.
This is stated in the new March report of the World Bank on the Europe and Central Asia region " Data, Digitalization, and Governance. Economic prospects and long-term challenges", where the forecasts for 2021-2022 are updated.
In particular, the world Bank forecasts for Armenia in the industry by accelerating growth in 2021 - 2022 agricultural sector - from 1.3% to 2.2% (actual vs 1.4 percent growth in 2020), prosector - from 1.2% to 2.4% (vs. actual of 0.9% on recession in 2020), services from 5.1% to 5.8%, compared to the actual (actual vs 14,7% on recession in 2020).
The Bank also forecasts for 2021 the growth of exports of goods and services from Armenia 8.7% with the accelerating pace to 12.2% in 2022, and import growth will accelerate from 8.3% in 2021г to 9.2% in 2022, against the actual recession in 2020 export of 3.9% and imports increased 17.7 percent.
The World Bank forecasts Armenia's current account deficit at 4.8% of GDP in 2021, with an increase to 5.5% of GDP in 2022 (against an estimated 4.2% in 2020).
The World Bank forecasts the ratio of net foreign direct investment (FDI) to GDP for Armenia at 1.8% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022 (against an estimated 1.2% in 2020).
In terms of Armenia's public debt, the World Bank forecasts growth to 70.8% of GDP in 2021 (from the actual 67.3% in 2020), with a slight decrease in 2022 to 70.6% of GDP.
The ratio of the state budget deficit to GDP, according to the World Bank forecast, will be 5.3% in 2021 (against the actual 5.1% in 2020), with a decrease in 2022 to 3.8%.
The World Bank forecasts inflation in Armenia for 2021 at 3.5% , with a slight increase in 2022 to 3.8% (against the actual inflation of 3.7% in January-December 2020, with annual inflation of 1.2%).
The World Bank also indicates the projected level of poverty in Armenia. According to the updated World Bank forecast, the most vulnerable segment of the population of Armenia in terms of its poverty level, calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) at a cost of $1.9 per day, will make up 1.3% of the population in 2021 (against the estimated 1.3% in 2020) and will decrease to 1.1% in 2022. The conditional average layer of the population, namely those who spend $3.2 per day on existence, based on PPP, in 2021 may be 11.7% (against an estimated 13.2% in 2020) and will decrease to 10.2% in 2022. And the level of poverty among the broadest layer of the country's poor, who are able to spend no more than $5.5 a day on themselves, is projected by the World Bank for 2021 at 48.3% (against an estimated 51.7% in 2020) and will decrease to 45% in 2022.
It should be noted that the Central Bank of Armenia, on the contrary, worsened expectations for economic growth from the previous 2% to the current 1.4%. And the state budget of the Republic of Armenia provides for GDP growth of 3.2%.
