ArmInfo. Maintaining the current high level of prices on the world copper market during 2021 will have a positive impact on Armenia's economic growth. This was announced by former Armenian Finance Minister Vardan Aramyann on his Facebook page.
As the expert pointed out, today-on Monday, the Statistical Committee will publish an indicator on economic activity for January-March. "I hasten to note that the two - month cumulative indicator of economic activity - a decline of 6.7%, will improve in March," Aramyan said, adding that even thanks to the basic effect, the growth will be visible in all areas.
"It couldn't have been any other way. The current-more active life against the background of last year's lockdown should have led to this, " the ex-minister said. At the same time, as Aramyan pointed out, this is a standard situation not only for Armenia - the trend is noticeable in almost all countries of the world. At the same time, as the economist noted, the question is different - in comparison with comparable countries in the region, how quickly the Armenian economy is recovering and what will be the economic outcome of the year. "The current situation and trends suggest that the growth will be in the range of 1-2%," he said.
At the same time, according to the former head of the Ministry of Finance, there are external factors that can positively affect the indicator and "pull up"-the consistent preservation of the current high level of prices on the world copper market during the year (currently there is about a 40% increase in average prices compared to 2020).
The course of the upcoming elections, or rather, the sufficiently active conduct of the election campaign in all regions, can also have a positive impact on economic growth indicators. The latter factor, as Aramyan pointed out, will be situational, not permanent.
Note that, according to Fitch Solutions, prices for almost all minerals and metals in 2021 will increase on average year-on-year. According to the Fitch report, the mining and metals industry will improve in 2021, after significant disruptions occurred in the sector in 2020 due to government-imposed isolation measures and stricter health and safety protocols. This is especially true for the copper market, experts say.
Note that Armenia's GDP growth by the end of 2021, according to the approved state budget, will be 3.2%. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts GDP growth of 1% for Armenia in 2021 with an acceleration in 2022 to 3.5%, the World Bank for 2021 expects GDP growth of 3.4%, against the previously expected 3.1%, Fitch expects real GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 of 3.2%. The EDB's baseline forecast predicts GDP growth of 3.8% in 2021, while the Central Bank of Armenia forecasts 1.4% growth in 2021.
