ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity in January-May 2021 increased by 4.3% per annum (against a 3.9% decline a year earlier), which is accompanied by a jump in exports and a rise in import growth. In May of this year by May 2020, economic activity increased by 10.9% (against a decline of 12.8% a year earlier), while only demonstrating an increase of 2% in May 2021 (against 13.3% growth in May 2020).
According to the preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee, the growth of economic activity in January-May 2021 was largely determined by the construction sector - by 14.3% and the trade sector - by 7.4%, and to a lesser extent - by the industrial sector by 2.3%, the energy complex by 2% and the service sector by 0.9%. A year earlier, in January-May 2020, the construction sector, the trade sector and the service sector fell into recession - by 23.4%, 10.8% and 4.2%, respectively, and only the industrial sector and the energy complex remained in growth by 2.4% and 8.3%, respectively.
The industrial product price index increased in January-May 2021 compared to the same period in 2019 by 9%, in May 2021 compared to May 2020 - by 12.5%, and in May 2021 alone - by 1%. A year earlier, in similar periods, almost the same dynamics was recorded, but the indicators were much lower: the industrial product price index increased in January-May 2020 in comparison with the same period of 2019 by 0.3%, in May 2020 to May 2019 - by 1.1% and in May 2020 alone decreased by 0.3%.
In monthly terms (for May 2021), the decisive impetus to the growth of economic activity was given by the construction sector with an increase in volume of 17.9% (against an increase of 3.1-fold in May 2020), followed by trade in terms of growth rates - by 6% ( against an increase of 33.3% in May 2020), the industrial sector - by 3.4% (against an increase of 11.9% in May 2020), and the service sector - by 3.4% (against an increase of 0.8% in May 2020). The energy complex stalled in decline, accelerating to 12.9% from 2% a year earlier.
On a y-o-y terms (from May 2021 to May 2020), growth in economic activity was observed in all industries, except for the energy complex, which accelerated the decline to 3.1%. Thus, the trade sector increased its turnover by 17.6%, the service sector increased its volumes by 17.3%, the industrial sector - by 7.9%, and the construction sector - by 0.5%. A year earlier, in May 2020 to May 2019, there was a decline in all sectors: construction - 27%, services - 19.4%, trade sector - 18.4%, industrial sector - 3.9%, energy complex - 0.1%.
According to statistics in January-May 2021, the absolute leadership is held by the trading sector with a volume of 1.2 trillion drams ($ 2.3 billion). The second place is held by the industrial sector - 840.7 billion drams ($ 1.6 billion), the third place is taken by the service sector - 703.1 billion drams ($ 1.3 billion). The fourth pplace was traditionally occupied by agriculture sectos, but due to the lack of data, this place was taken by the construction sector - 94.5 billion drams ($ 180.4 million). The volume of electricity generation amounted to 3310.3 million kWh in January-May 2021, of which 557.3 million kWh in May alone.
At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-May 2021 amounted to 1.5 trillion drams ($ 2.9 billion) with a y-o-y growth of 11.6%. In its structure, the volume of exports increased on a y-o-y terms by 20.8% to 567.4 billion drams ($ 1.1 billion), and imports - by 6.7% to 931.8 billion drams ($ 1.8 billion).
In May 2021 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 3.9% due to an increase in exports by 7.9% with an increase in imports by 1.5%, and compared to May 2020, an increase in foreign trade turnover by 35.3% almost equal was due to the growth of exports by 36.7% and imports by 34.5%. A year earlier, in January- May 2020, foreign trade turnover decreased by 11.2% per annum due to a decline in imports by 12.8% and exports by 8.1%, and the May increase in foreign trade turnover by 13% was due to an upward trend in exports by 30.7% with an increase in imports by 4.3%, compared to May 2019, the decline in foreign trade turnover by 17.3% was largely due to a decline in imports by 21.8%, rather than exports by 8.7%.
The average calculated AMD exchange rate in May 2020 was 521.35 AMD / $ 1, and in January-May 2020 - 523.87 AMD / $ 1, against 484.12 AMD / $ 1 May 2020 and 483.95 AMD / $ 1 in January-May 2020
To note, according to the forecast of the World Bank (WB) updated in June, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will amount to 3.4%. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the World Bank predicts an increase in exports and imports by 8.7% and 8.3% for 2021, respectively. In its May forecast, the IMF expected GDP growth by 1% in Armenia for 2021. The new forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia (June) foreshadows GDP growth in 2021 by 4.6%. According to statistics, Armenia's GDP in 2020 decreased by 7.4% - to 6.2 trillion drams (against an increase of 7.6% - to 6.5 trillion drams in 2019).
