ArmInfo.A more impressive growth in exports than imports increased the foreign trade deficit of Armenia in January-May 2021 by 13% per annum (against a decline of 18% a year earlier, with a decline in imports by 12.8% and exports by 8.1%).
At the same time, in May of this year alone, this indicator decreased by 7.4%, against the background of moderate growth in exports with a negligible increase in imports. And in May 2021 compared to May 2020, the foreign trade deficit increased by 33% as a result of an almost equal significant growth in exports and imports, but still with some prevalence of export rates.
According to the preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-May 2021 grew by 11.6% from 11.2% decline a year earlier, which is due to the reversal of the y-o-y dynamics of exports and imports from 8.1-12.8 % decline by 20.8-6.7% growth. As a result, Armenia's foreign trade turnover amounted to 1.5 trillion drams ($ 2.9 billion), in particular, exports - 567.4 billion drams ($ 1.1 billion), imports - 931.8 billion drams ($ 1.8 billion), which formed a foreign trade deficit at the level of 364.4 billion drams ($ 695 million). In May 2021 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 3.9% due to an increase in exports by 7.9% and a negligible increase in imports by 1.5%. As a result, Armenia's foreign trade deficit amounted to 83.4 billion drams ($ 160 million) in May 2021, decreasing this time more restrained (by 7.4%) than in the same month of 2020 (by 21.1%). A year earlier, in May 2020, foreign trade turnover increased by 13% due to a 30.7% increase in exports with a modest 4.3% increase in imports.
On a y-o-y terms (May 2021 to May 2020), the output of foreign trade turnover by 35.3% growth was almost equally due to an increase in exports by 36.7% and imports by 34.5%. A year earlier, in May 2020 by May 2019, imports were in a more significant decline (by 21.8%) than exports (by 8.7%), which accelerated the subsidence of foreign trade turnover to 17.3%.
According to statistics, the economic activity of Armenia in January-May 2021 increased by 4.3% per annum, against a decline of 3.9% in the same period of 2020. In May 2021 alone, economic activity slowed down to 2% from 3.2% in April, while a year earlier, the exit from the April 12.9% decline to the May 13.3% growth was recorded. On a y-o-y terms May 2021 to May 2020), economic activity increased by 10.9% (against a decline of 12.8% in May 2020 to May 2019).
To note, according to the forecast of the World Bank (WB) updated in June, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will amount to 3.4%. In terms of Armenia's foreign trade, the World Bank forecasts an increase in exports and imports by 8.7% and 8.3% for 2021, respectively. In its May forecast, the IMF expected GDP growth by 1% in Armenia for 2021. The new forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia (June) foreshadows GDP growth in 2021 by 4.6%. According to statistics, Armenia's GDP in 2020 decreased by 7.4% - to 6.2 trillion drams (against an increase of 7.6% - to 6.5 trillion drams in 2019).
