ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia improved its forecast for GDP growth for 2021 to 4.6% (from 1.4% previously projected), relying on relatively high upward rates in the industrial and service sectors. This is stated in the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Program for the II quarter of 2021, published at the end of June.
The faster-than-expected recovery in economic activity in partner countries and the persistence of high world metal prices will contribute to a faster recovery of the Armenian economy during 2021, which is already evidenced by the current actual indicators. In the second half of this year, the growth of the industrial sector will maintain the currently recorded high rates, but in comparison with the first half of the year, no particular acceleration is expected, since investment activity in the economy is still weaker than last year's level.
In the service sector, the outlook was revised upward, mainly due to a faster recovery in private consumption and a decline in private savings. The revision of the forecast reflects a positive trend in the development of tourism, both international and outbound, as well as the possibility of replacing domestic trade and services in conditions of high consumption rates.
In the agricultural sector, the Central Bank predicts a slowdown in growth, which is caused by unfavorable weather conditions observed in the current quarter, from which the damage caused to crop production will affect the agricultural sector by negative 0.7 percentage points.
In the construction sector, the Central Bank expects lower growth, since the rate recorded at the beginning of the year will gradually weaken. Moreover, the projected growth will mainly be provided by construction at the expense of budget funds, and construction at the expense of enterprises and the population will remain passive due to the delay in private investment due to the persistence of uncertainties. Note that, according to the updated forecast of the World Bank, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will amount to 3.4%, accelerating to 4.3% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023. Moreover, in the sectoral breakdown, the WB expects accelerated growth in 2021-2022 in the agricultural sector - from 1.3% to 2.2%, in the industrial sector - from 1.2% to 2.4%, in the service sector - from 5.1% to 5.8%. In Russia, the World Bank forecasts GDP growth of 3.2% for 2021, maintaining this rate in 2022 and a subsequent slowdown in 2023 to 2.3%. For the US economy, the World Bank predicts growth by 6.8% for 2021 with a slowdown to 4.2% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.
It should be reminded that according to the data of the RA Statistic Committee, the decline in Armenia's GDP in 2020 amounted to 7.4%. In particular, the decline in the service sector was 14.7%, the trade sector - 14%, the construction sector - 9.5%, the industrial sector - 0.9%, and the growth of the agricultural sector was 1.4%. And already in January-May 2021, economic activity in Armenia showed an increase of 4.3% per annum, driven mainly by the construction sector (14.3%) and the trade sector (7.4%), as well as the industrial sector (2, 3%) and the service sector (0.9%).
