ArmInfo. Renowned economist, Head of Management Advisory Services at Ameria Group of Companies Tigran Jrbashyan believes that the GDP growth rate of Armenia will reach 4.5-5% in 2021. Economist, former mayor of Yerevan Vahagn Khachatryan hopes for a higher figure. Experts said this on the air of Channel One, discussing the macroeconomic realities of the republic.
It should be noted that according to statistics, in January-May 2021, economic activity in Armenia increased by 4.3% per annum (against a 3.9% decline a year earlier), which is accompanied by an increase in exports and a rise in import growth. In May of this year to May 2020, economic activity increased by 10.9% (against a decline of 12.8% a year earlier), while demonstrating an increase of 2% in May 2021 alone (against 13.3% growth in May 2020).
According to Tigran Jrbashyan, considering this dynamics, one should bear in mind that there was a low base effect. He recalled that in the Q2 2020, the largest decline was recorded (according to the Statistical Committee of Armenia, in Q1 2020, the republic's GDP decreased by 7.1% per annum (8% growth in 2019), while specifically in Q2, GDP decreased by 13.7%, Ed. note). In this vein, according to the results of Q2 2021, in relation to Q2 2020, the expert forecasts an increase of about 10%.
Already in Q3 and Q4, according to the economist, the low base effect is expected to decline. "In the third and fourth quarters, the growth rates will amount to 5-7%, in a cumulative sense on a y-o-y terms, the figure is forecasted in the range of 4.5-5%," he said.
According to Jrbashyan, despite the fact that the parliamentary elections introduced some political certainty - Armenia was able to avoid big risks in the form of internal political tension, which has a certain positivity, including to the economic life of the country, but the pace of economic recovery in Armenia is still lower than the global ones.
Economist Vahagn Khachatryan, in turn, asks the question: "Is the structure of GDP that Armenia has - the mining industry, partly the agricultural sector, partly - services and tourism, capable of providing the level of GDP required to ensure stable economic growth? ' At the same time, according to the economist, if Armenia manages to avoid force majeure situations, including another lockdown, then Armenia, under current realities, is capable of reaching a y-o-y GDP growth of more than 4.3-4.8%.
Yesterday, acting Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan said that the forecast for the growth of Armenian GDP for 2021 is being revised upward - from 3.2%, laid down in the Law on the State Budget for 2021, to 6%. Pashinyan backed up his words with data on tax collections for the first half of the year. In particular, as chairman of the State Revenue Committee of Armenia Eduard Hovhannisyan said, for January-June 2021, the actual tax collections of the Armenian state treasury are 750.2 billion drams, instead of the planned figure of 683 billion drams. The adjusted program indicator for the reporting period, according to him, will make 697.7 billion drams. In this context, the overfulfillment for the first 6 months will amount to 52.5 billion drams.
Acting Minister of Economy of Armenia Vahan Kerobyan called the forecast for the growth of Armenian GDP for 2021, voiced by Pashinyan at the level of 6%, instead of 3.2%, laid down in the Law on State Budget for 2021, conservative. "Now we are moving along the path that I planned, and the plan to end the year with double-digit economic growth remains in force," Kerobyan said.
To note, economic growth in the state budget for 2021 is provided at 3.2%, and inflation is set at 4% (+/- 1.5%). The Central Bank of Armenia yesterday improved its forecast for GDP growth for 2021 to 4.6% (from 1.4% previously projected), relying on relatively high upward rates in the industrial and service sectors. According to the updated forecast of the WB, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will amount to 3.4%, accelerating to 4.3% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023.
