Friday, July 2 2021 16:22

ArmInfo.  Renowned economist, Head of Management Advisory Services at Ameria Group of Companies Tigran Jrbashyan believes that the GDP growth rate of Armenia will reach 4.5-5% in 2021. Economist, former mayor of Yerevan Vahagn Khachatryan  hopes for a higher figure. Experts said this on the air of Channel  One, discussing the macroeconomic realities of the republic.

It should be noted that according to statistics, in January-May 2021,  economic activity in Armenia increased by 4.3% per annum (against a  3.9% decline a year earlier), which is accompanied by an increase in  exports and a rise in import growth. In May of this year to May 2020,  economic activity increased by 10.9% (against a decline of 12.8% a  year earlier), while demonstrating an increase of 2% in May 2021  alone (against 13.3% growth in May 2020).

According to Tigran Jrbashyan, considering this dynamics, one should  bear in mind that there was a low base effect. He recalled that in  the Q2 2020, the largest decline was recorded (according to the  Statistical Committee of Armenia, in Q1 2020, the republic's GDP  decreased by 7.1% per annum (8% growth in 2019), while specifically  in Q2, GDP decreased by 13.7%, Ed. note). In this vein, according to  the results of Q2 2021, in relation to Q2 2020, the expert forecasts  an increase of about 10%.

Already in Q3 and Q4, according to the economist, the low base effect  is expected to decline. "In the third and fourth quarters, the growth  rates will amount to 5-7%, in a cumulative sense on a y-o-y terms,  the figure is forecasted in the range of 4.5-5%," he said.

According to Jrbashyan, despite the fact that the parliamentary  elections introduced some political certainty - Armenia was able to  avoid big risks in the form of internal political tension, which has  a certain positivity, including to the economic life of the country,  but the pace of economic recovery in Armenia is still lower than the  global ones.

Economist Vahagn Khachatryan, in turn, asks the question: "Is the  structure of GDP that Armenia has - the mining industry, partly the  agricultural sector, partly - services and tourism, capable of  providing the level of GDP required to ensure stable economic growth?  ' At the same time, according to the economist, if Armenia manages to  avoid force majeure situations, including another lockdown, then  Armenia, under current realities, is capable of reaching a y-o-y GDP  growth of more than 4.3-4.8%.

Yesterday, acting Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan said that  the forecast for the growth of Armenian GDP for 2021 is being revised  upward - from 3.2%, laid down in the Law on the State Budget for  2021, to 6%. Pashinyan backed up his words with data on tax  collections for the first half of the year. In particular, as   chairman of the State Revenue Committee of Armenia Eduard  Hovhannisyan said, for January-June 2021, the actual tax collections  of the Armenian state treasury are 750.2 billion drams, instead of  the planned figure of 683 billion drams. The adjusted program  indicator for the reporting period, according to him, will make 697.7  billion drams. In this context, the overfulfillment for the first 6  months will amount to 52.5 billion drams.

Acting Minister of Economy of Armenia Vahan Kerobyan called the  forecast for the growth of Armenian GDP for 2021, voiced by Pashinyan  at the level of 6%, instead of 3.2%, laid down in the Law on State  Budget for 2021, conservative. "Now we are moving along the path that  I planned, and the plan to end the year with double-digit economic  growth remains in force," Kerobyan said.

To note, economic growth in the state budget for 2021 is provided at  3.2%, and inflation is set at 4% (+/- 1.5%). The Central Bank of  Armenia yesterday improved its forecast for GDP growth for 2021 to  4.6% (from 1.4% previously projected), relying on relatively high  upward rates in the industrial and service sectors. According to the  updated forecast of the WB, GDP growth in Armenia in 2021 will amount  to 3.4%, accelerating to 4.3% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023.