Tuesday, October 5 2021 12:48
Karine Melikyan

In Armenia, growth of economic activity for 8 months by 4.9% of this  year is still inferior to pre-COVID 7% 

In Armenia, growth of economic activity for 8 months by 4.9% of this  year is still inferior to pre-COVID 7% 

ArmInfo.In Armenia, economic activity in January-August 2021 increased by 4.9% per annum, accompanied by an 6.4% decline a year ago, but so far yielding to the  pre- COVID 7% growth (in January-August 2019). In August of this year  by August 2020, economic activity also exited last year's 9.8%  decline to the current 2.3% growth, which is very different from the  pre-COVID 7.6% growth (from August 2019 to August 2018). At the same  time, in August 2021 alone, the growth of economic activity slowed  down to 2.1% from July 7.5%, which was also observed in August 2020 -  up to 7.4% from July 9.7% (against the pre-COVID 7.2% growth in  August 2019).

According to the final data of the Statistical Committee of the  Republic of Armenia, the growth of economic activity in  January-August 2021 was largely determined by the construction sector  - by 7.3%, the trade sector - by 7.1%, the service sector - by 5.3%,  to a lesser extent the industrial sector - by 1%, and the energy  complex was in a decline of 1.5%. Since 2019, data on the  agricultural sector in the reports of the Statistical Committee are  published only on a quarterly terms. A year earlier, in  January-August 2020, only the industrial sector and the energy  complex remained in growth - 1.9% and 0.9%, respectively, and the  rest of the sectors were in decline: the construction sector - by  19.1%, the trade sector - by 11.5 %, the service sector - by 10.8%.  And in the pre-COVID period, in January-August 2019, the growth of  economic activity was largely supported by the service sector - by  15.5% per annum, and to a slightly lesser extent by the industrial  sector - by 9.5% and the trade sector - by 9%, against which the  construction sector showed a modest increase of 4.4%, while the  energy complex was in decline by 3.5%.

The industrial product price index increased in January-August 2021  compared to the same period in 2019 by 9.8%, in August 2021 compared  to August 2020 it increased by 7.9%, and in August 2021 alone it  slowed down the decline to 0.4% from July 3.3%. A year earlier, in  January-August 2020, compared to the same period of 2019, the  industrial product price index increased by 1.5%, in August 2020  compared to August 2019, it increased by 4.4%, while in August 2020  alone, accelerating growth to 2% from July 1%. On a monthly terms  (for August 2021), the construction sector gave a decisive impetus to  the growth of economic activity, accelerating the pace to 27.8% from  12.1% in July. And the rest of the sectors, with the exception of the  energy complex, showed scanty growth: the service sector - by 1%  (against 3.3% in July, and an increase of 4.3% in August 2020), the  industrial sector - by 0.6% (against the July stagnation, and growth  by 8.4% in August 2020), the trade sector - by 0.2% (against 6.5% in  July, and growth by 0.4% in August 2020). And the volume of generated  electricity in August decreased by 8.8%, while in the previous month  (July) and in August 2020 it was in growth - by 23.5% and 1.6%,  respectively.

In y-o-y terms (August 2021 to August 2020), an improvement in  dynamics with an entry into growth was demonstrated by the service  sector - by 10.8%, the trade sector - by 5% and the construction  sector - by 2.3%, while the energy complex and the industrial sector  were in decline from acceleration of rates to 12.2% and 5.2%,  respectively. A year earlier, in August 2020 by August 2019, these  areas were in decline, with the services sector leading in terms of  rates - 19.3% and the trade sector - 14.8%, in comparison with which  the rest of the sectors were distinguished by less significant  subsidence: energy complex - 6.9%, construction sector - 5.3% and  industrial sector - 1.2%.

According to statistics in January-August 2021, the absolute  leadership is held by the retail sector with a volume of 2.1 trillion  drams ($ 4.03 billion). The industrial sector ranks second in terms  of volume - 1.4 trillion ($ 2.8 billion), the third - service sector  - 1.2 trillion drams ($ 2.3 billion), and the fourth position, due to  the lack of data on the agricultural sector, is occupied by the  construction sector - 205.3 billion drams ($ 399.2 million). The  volume of electricity generation amounted to 5030.5 million kWh in  January-August 2021, of which in August alone- 576.4 million kWh.

At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-August  2021 amounted to 2.6 trillion drams ($ 5 billion) with a y-o-y growth  of 12.7%. In its structure, export volumes increased more  impressively - by 21.8% per annum to 981.5 billion drams ($ 1.9  billion), than import volumes - by 7.7% to 1.6 trillion drams ($ 3.1  billion). In August 2021 alone, foreign trade turnover decreased by  4.7% due to a decline in imports by 8.2% with a negligible increase  in exports by 1.4%, which was also observed in y-o-y dynamics (August  2021 compared to August 2020), when the decline foreign trade  turnover by 0.1% was due to the subsidence of imports by 7.3%, while  exports grew by 13.9%. A year earlier, in January-August 2020, a  10.2% decline in Armenia's foreign trade turnover was provoked by a  12.4% decline in imports, while exports fell by 6%; in August alone,  foreign trade turnover increased by 5.8% due to an increase in  imports by 7 .3% and exports by 3.4%, and compared to August 2019,  the decrease in foreign trade turnover by 4% was provoked by an  almost equal decline in exports and imports - by 3.8% and 4.1%,  respectively.

 It is noteworthy that in the pre-COVID period, in January-August  2019, Armenia's foreign trade turnover showed a noticeably modest  growth - by 2% due to a moderate increase in export and import  volumes - by 4.6% and 0.7%, respectively, in August alone foreign  trade turnover showed a miserable decline of 1.6% due to a decline in  imports by 2.8% with a weak growth in exports of 0.6%, and compared  to August 2018, an increase in foreign trade turnover by 2.5% was  provoked by  an increase in exports by 13.5% with a decline in  imports by 2.8%.

The average calculated AMD exchange rate in August 2021 was 491.73  AMD / $ 1, and in January-August 2021 - 514.38 AMD / $ 1, against  485.49 AMD / $ 1 - in August 2020 and 483.90 AMD / $ 1 - in January-  August 2020


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