ArmInfo.According to the revised forecast for 2021 by the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), 4.2% GDP growth is expected in Armenia against the previously forecast 5.4%, with inflation near 8.4% by the end of this year. According to the revised CBA forecast, 5.3% GDP growth is expected next year, CBA Chairman Martyn Galstyan told a news conference on Tuesday.
The CBA`s steps to tighten its monetary policy, particularly to raise the refinancing rate by 0.5% up to 7.75% from December 14, are aimed to anchor the inflationary expectations and stabilize prices. Among the external factors influencing inflation are prices for imported off-season foods. According to Mr Galstyan, inflation will go down to the targeted 4% by 2022.
According to the RA Statistical Committee, 1.7% inflation was officially registered in Armenia this November, with the annual inflation (in November 2021 against November 2020) rising up to 9.6%. During the previous period (November 2020 against November 2019), the monthly inflation was 1.3%, with the annual inflation being 1.6%. The real inflation rose up to 8.4% this November against last November, after the previous months of stability. This November alone, 0.8% inflation was recorded against 2% and 0.4% respectively during the corresponding periods last year.
This January-October saw 4.3% growth in economic activity, with 3.6% growth this October against last October. The trade and services sectors proved drivers of the growth, with modest growth in industrial output.
According to the WB September forecast, 6.5% GDP growth is expected in Armenia this year, with 4.5% GDP growth expected next year.
3.2% GDP growth was budged for this year, but Armenia`s financial authorities are expecting 6% GDP growth. 7% GDP growth has been budgeted for next year, after last year`s 7.4% fall in GDP and pre- COVID 7.6% fall in 2019, according to the statistical data.
