Friday, February 11 2022 17:35

ArmInfo. The economy of Armenia, in comparison with other EAEU countries, has not fully recovered. Economist, member of the Eurasian Expert Club Ashot  Tavadyan, expressed a similar opinion during a press conference on  February 11.

In this regard, he noted that economic activity increased by 5.8% in  2021, after a decline of 7.5% in 2020.  The growth was due to  improved dynamics in the service sector, construction, and industry.  "That is, in structural terms, we have serious problems," Tavadyan  stressed.

At the same time, the economist noted that the share of exports in  the structure of GDP is about 20% or $2.7 billion. However, according  to Tavadyan, this figure should be $5 billion.  As the main factors  that influenced the growth of exports, he singled out the recovery of  the Russian economy, the growth of international prices for  non-ferrous metals and the timely response of domestic business to  such positive trends. According to the expert, the economy of  Armenia, being small in terms of its volume, should put the main  emphasis in export activities on finished products.

At the same time, he considered it inappropriate to compare the  inflation rate in Armenia with the countries of the region in terms  of registered low rates. <In Armenia, inflation in 2021 was recorded  at 7.7%, in Georgia - 13%, in Russia - over 8%. But at the same time,  economic growth in Georgia amounted to 10.6% (against a 6.8% decline  in 2020). And in Russia, the economy has fully recovered>, Tavadyan  noted.

In addition, he drew attention to the increase in migration due to  the level of wages, unemployment and per capita GDP. In particular,  in this vein, the expert noted that in Russia the monthly salary is 2  times higher than in Armenia, the GDP per capita in the Russian  Federation is 11 thousand, while in Armenia it is about 4 thousand,  the unemployment rate in the Russian Federation is 6 %, and in  Armenia - 15%. "These problems exist and they require an urgent  solution," he stressed.

In turn, professor, member of the Eurasian Expert Club Tatul  Manaseryan noted that within the framework of the EAEU, Armenia can  achieve even better results. In this regard, he noted that the model  of Armenian- Russian relations should be extended to relations with  other members of the Union. <It is necessary to professionally set  tasks and solve them. In this case, the day will not be far off when  Armenia, with its compact economy, will be able to take the leading  places in this region," he said.

Expressing the consolidated position of the Eurasian Expert Club,  coordinator Aram Safaryan, speaking about the prospects for  integration, noted that Armenia has no other alternative to  increasing exports and production of finished products, as increasing  the country's representation in the EAEU. At the same time, he  pointed out the importance of using the government's reserves to  improve the economy. <The government subsidizes many branches through  banks. But this is a policy of heavy, expensive money.  Numerous  countries give these subsidies directly to manufacturers, reducing  the cost of refinancing, thereby increasing the cost and  attractiveness of products," Safaryan said.

It should be noted that according to the Statistical Committee, in  Armenia, economic activity increased in January-December 2021 by 5.8%  per annum, against a 7.5% decline in 2020 and a 7.8% growth in 2019.   According to the World Bank forecast for January 2021-2022, Armenia's  GDP growth will slow from 6.1% to 4.8%. The IMF, in its November  forecast, also predicted a slowdown in Armenia's GDP from 5.5% in  2021 to 5.3% in 2022. And according to the December forecast of the  Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, Armenia's GDP growth will  accelerate from 4.2% in 2021 to 5.3% in 2022. The state budget of the  Republic of Armenia for 2021 envisaged 3.2% GDP growth, and in 2022 -  7% GDP growth. And this is after the fact that in 2020 the actual  decline in GDP took place by 7.4%, and and the pre-Covid GDP growth  in 2019 by 7.6%.

According to statistics, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the  EAEU countries in January-December 2021 exceeded $2.7 billion, with a  y-o-y growth of 20.6%. In particular, exports in this direction  amounted to $888.8 million (y-o-y growth of 25.2%), and imports -  $1.8 billion (y-o-y growth of 18.5%). In the foreign trade turnover  of Armenia, the share of the EAEU increased from 31.9% in 2020 to  32.7% in 2021.