ArmInfo. The economy of Armenia, in comparison with other EAEU countries, has not fully recovered. Economist, member of the Eurasian Expert Club Ashot Tavadyan, expressed a similar opinion during a press conference on February 11.
In this regard, he noted that economic activity increased by 5.8% in 2021, after a decline of 7.5% in 2020. The growth was due to improved dynamics in the service sector, construction, and industry. "That is, in structural terms, we have serious problems," Tavadyan stressed.
At the same time, the economist noted that the share of exports in the structure of GDP is about 20% or $2.7 billion. However, according to Tavadyan, this figure should be $5 billion. As the main factors that influenced the growth of exports, he singled out the recovery of the Russian economy, the growth of international prices for non-ferrous metals and the timely response of domestic business to such positive trends. According to the expert, the economy of Armenia, being small in terms of its volume, should put the main emphasis in export activities on finished products.
At the same time, he considered it inappropriate to compare the inflation rate in Armenia with the countries of the region in terms of registered low rates. <In Armenia, inflation in 2021 was recorded at 7.7%, in Georgia - 13%, in Russia - over 8%. But at the same time, economic growth in Georgia amounted to 10.6% (against a 6.8% decline in 2020). And in Russia, the economy has fully recovered>, Tavadyan noted.
In addition, he drew attention to the increase in migration due to the level of wages, unemployment and per capita GDP. In particular, in this vein, the expert noted that in Russia the monthly salary is 2 times higher than in Armenia, the GDP per capita in the Russian Federation is 11 thousand, while in Armenia it is about 4 thousand, the unemployment rate in the Russian Federation is 6 %, and in Armenia - 15%. "These problems exist and they require an urgent solution," he stressed.
In turn, professor, member of the Eurasian Expert Club Tatul Manaseryan noted that within the framework of the EAEU, Armenia can achieve even better results. In this regard, he noted that the model of Armenian- Russian relations should be extended to relations with other members of the Union. <It is necessary to professionally set tasks and solve them. In this case, the day will not be far off when Armenia, with its compact economy, will be able to take the leading places in this region," he said.
Expressing the consolidated position of the Eurasian Expert Club, coordinator Aram Safaryan, speaking about the prospects for integration, noted that Armenia has no other alternative to increasing exports and production of finished products, as increasing the country's representation in the EAEU. At the same time, he pointed out the importance of using the government's reserves to improve the economy. <The government subsidizes many branches through banks. But this is a policy of heavy, expensive money. Numerous countries give these subsidies directly to manufacturers, reducing the cost of refinancing, thereby increasing the cost and attractiveness of products," Safaryan said.
It should be noted that according to the Statistical Committee, in Armenia, economic activity increased in January-December 2021 by 5.8% per annum, against a 7.5% decline in 2020 and a 7.8% growth in 2019. According to the World Bank forecast for January 2021-2022, Armenia's GDP growth will slow from 6.1% to 4.8%. The IMF, in its November forecast, also predicted a slowdown in Armenia's GDP from 5.5% in 2021 to 5.3% in 2022. And according to the December forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, Armenia's GDP growth will accelerate from 4.2% in 2021 to 5.3% in 2022. The state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2021 envisaged 3.2% GDP growth, and in 2022 - 7% GDP growth. And this is after the fact that in 2020 the actual decline in GDP took place by 7.4%, and and the pre-Covid GDP growth in 2019 by 7.6%.
According to statistics, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU countries in January-December 2021 exceeded $2.7 billion, with a y-o-y growth of 20.6%. In particular, exports in this direction amounted to $888.8 million (y-o-y growth of 25.2%), and imports - $1.8 billion (y-o-y growth of 18.5%). In the foreign trade turnover of Armenia, the share of the EAEU increased from 31.9% in 2020 to 32.7% in 2021.
