ArmInfo.Armenia's Minister of Economy Vahan Kerobyan disagrees with the Central Bank, which revised its GDP forecast for 2022 from 5.3% down to 1.6%. Among the major causes of lower GDP growth rates are, according to the Regulator, a decline in exports to Russia and in industry, and a rapid decline in construction.
Mr Kerobyan recalled last year's forecasts by the CBA and by a number of international financial organizations, which expected 1.1% GDP growth in Armenia, whereas 5.7% GDP growth was actually recorded.
"Yes, we could not ensure two-digit growth, but our aiming at two-digit indicators helped us keep the figure up at 1.1%," he said.
A competent export policy will enable Armenia to substantially expand exports as the withdrawal of a large number of companies from Russia formed a vacuum in Russia's market.
"And we have ample opportunities for expansion. And the government is willing to support our exporters for them to boost their exports to Russia," the minister said. Referring to the information from exporters, Mr Kerobyan reported a sharp increase in orders from Russia. On the other hand, he stressed that it is not exports as such, but exporters' incomes amid the serious ruble depreciation that arouse concern. To ensure at least minimum incomes, the government is considering several tools to support exporters.
"Trading in terms of US dollars is impossible now, and payments in rubles pos great risks to our exporters," the minister said.
At present, Armenia's Ministry of Economy is offering the Russian side to effect payments in terms of national currencies. Mr Kerobyan reported that the Eurasian Commission is discussing SWAP transactions, which will allow the Armenian side to receive rubles for effecting payments for imported products, while Russian banks will offer Armenian drams to their clients at the market exchange rate.
The Armenian side is discussing the issues with the Russian partners daily. Moreover, the EAEU Council will discuss a plan of actions, and boosting of interstate trade in terms of national currencies is on top of the agenda.
Mr Kerobyan expects economic growth this year to reach at least last year's level.
On March 15, the CBA revised its GDP growth forecast for 2020 from 5.3% down to 1.6%. The same day it raised the refinancing rate by 1.25 percentage points to up 9.25%.
7% GDP growth has been budgeted for 2022.
