ArmInfo.In Armenia, the growth of economic activity accelerated in January-May 2022 to 10.2% per annum (from 4.3% a year earlier), which is accompanied by high growth rates of exports and imports. In May of this year, by May 2021, economic activity accelerated growth to 13% (from 10.9% a year earlier), while increasing by 6.1% in May 2022 (against 2% growth in May 2021 and 5.3% growth in April 2022).
According to the preliminary data of the RA Statistical Committee, the growth of economic activity in January-May 2022 was largely conditioned by: the service sector - by 24.9%, the energy complex - by 13.1% and the construction sector - by 11.4%, and to a lesser extent the trade (8.9%) and the industrial sectors (2.7%).
A year earlier, in January-May 2021, the growth drivers were the construction sector - by 14.3% and the trade sector - by 7.4%, while the industrial sector, the energy complex and the service sector showed modest growth by 2.3%, 2% and 0,9%, respectively.
The industrial products price index in January-May 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 increased by 9.6%, in May 2022 compared to May 2021 - by 5%, and in May 2022 alone decreased by 3.1%. A year earlier, in similar periods, the following dynamics was recorded: the price index of industrial products in January-May 2021 compared to the same period in 2020 increased by 9%, in May 2021 by May 2020 - by 12.5%, and in May 2021 alone - by 1 %.
On a monthly terms,(for May 2022), the construction sector gave a decisive impetus to the growth of economic activity with an increase in volume by 21% (against an increase of 17.9% in May 2021), after which by growth rates followed: trade - by 9.8% ( against a growth of 6% in May 2021), the service sector - by 6.3% (against a growth of 3.4% in May 2021), and the industrial sector - by 3.2% (against a growth of 3.4% in May 2021 ). The energy complex lingered in the decline, with a slight slowdown to 10.9% from 12.9% a year earlier.
On a y-o-y terms (May 2022 to May 2021), an increase in economic activity was observed in all sectors, and even the energy complex managed to get out of the 3.1% decline by 8.2% growth. Thus, the service sector showed the highest growth, accelerating to 30.2% (from 17.3% a year earlier), after which, followed by the construction sector, also with a significant increase in pace - from 0.5% to 18.1%. And the trade sector and the industrial sector, having maintained their growth, slowed down from 17.6-7.9% to 12.4-2%.
According to the January-May 2022 statistics, the absolute leader is the trade sector with a volume of 1.4 trillion drams ($ 2.98 billion). The second place is held by the industrial sector - 961.05 billion drams ($2.01 billion), the third place is occupied by the service sector - 906.6 billion drams ($1.9 billion). Agriculture traditionally occupied the fourth place, but due to the lack of data, this place was occupied by the construction sector- 112.04 billion drams ($234.7 million). The volume of electricity generation in January-May 2022 amounted to 3745.4 million kWh, of which 603 million kWh in May alone.
At the same time, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-May 2022 amounted to 1.9 trillion drams ($3.9 billion) with a y-o-y increase of 36.6%. In its structure, the volume of exports increased by 27.5% year-on-year to 658.5 billion drams ($1.4 billion), and imports - by 42.2% to 1.2 trillion drams ($2.5 billion). In May 2022 alone, foreign trade turnover increased by 23.9% due to an increase in exports by 19.9% with an increase in imports by 26.3%, and compared to May 2021, an increase in foreign trade turnover by 45.5% was largely provoked by an increase in imports by 52.8% and, to a slightly lesser extent, an increase in exports by 33.7%. A year earlier, in January-May 2021, foreign trade turnover increased by 11.6% per annum due to an increase in exports by 20.8% and imports by 6.7%, and the May growth of foreign trade turnover by 3.9% was provoked by the upward dynamics of exports by 7.9% with an increase in imports of only 1.5%, compared with May 2020, an increase in foreign trade turnover by 35.3% was almost equally provoked by an increase in exports and imports by 36.7% and 34.5%, respectively.
The average settlement rate of the dram in May 2022 was 456.54 AMD/$1, and in January-May 2021 - 477.34 AMD/$1, against 521.35 AMD/$1 in May 2021 and 523.87 AMD/$1 in January- May 2021 the World Bank revised its forecast for 2022 in early June this year, improving Armenia's expected GDP growth rate from the previous 1.2% to the updated 3.5%. The Central Bank of Armenia also revised its forecast for 2022 in mid-June, indicating a more optimistic GDP growth of 4.9% (against the previously forecasted 1.6%). The IMF has not yet revised its forecast for 2022, dated March 17 this year, according to which Armenia's GDP growth may slow down to 1.5%. According to actual statistics, Armenia's GDP in 2021 reached a 5.7% growth (from a 7.2% decline in 2020), in pre-Covid 2019, growth of 7.6% was recorded.
