ArmInfo.The budget expenditures for the Armenian Police in 2023, as in the previous 2-3 years, are many times higher than the expenditures for scientific research, which clearly indicates the priorities of the RA government.
Tatul Manaseryan, head of the "Alternative" research center, Doctor of Economic Sciences, stated this opinion in an interview with an ArmInfo correspondent, commenting on the indicators set in the draft of the main financial document for next year.
It should be noted that according to the draft of the state budget, the GDP growth will be 11% at the end of this year, and 7% at the end of 2023.
The expenditure part of the state budget of Armenia for 2023, compared to the approved indicator for the current year, will increase by about 406.1 billion drams (about $166 million, the estimated exchange rate of the Armenian dram against the dollar is fixed at 404.74 AMD per $ 1) and will reach 2,590.1 billion drams (27.8% of GDP).
Revenues, which are planned at the level of 2,301.3 billion drams or 24.7% of GDP, will increase by 259 billion drams, including tax revenues (taxes and duties) by 280 billion drams, which will exceed the adjusted figure for the current year.
At the same time, the total allocations of the RA Police from 66.6 billion drams in 2022 will increase by 9.6 billion drams, or by 14.4%, to 76.2 billion drams. Meanwhile, only 29.8 billion drams have been allocated to the science sector, that is, for conducting fundamental, applied and thematic research of scientific and technical activities, maintaining and developing infrastructure and scientific facilities of national importance, ensuring the reproduction of scientific potential in 2023.
The expert recalls that in their forecasts, the financial authorities of Armenia were based on the assumption that in 2023, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the volume of exports, tourist flow, transfers, as well as the stay of Russian relocators in the Republic of Armenia will continue to increase. Over 250,000 visitors from the Russian Federation, Belarus and Ukraine became as the < of the growth of the Armenian economy in 2022. It is on the basis of this that the authorities of the republic claim a double-digit increase in GDP and an increase in tax collections, thanks to which they hope to cover the growing volume of current expenses, he noted.
Meanwhile, according to Manaseryan, by increasing pensions and the minimum wage (from 68 thousand to 75 thousand drams, ed. note), the financial authorities did not assess the country's ability to counteract economic threats. In the absence of price containment so far, the economist also does not see an analysis of the adequacy of the announced increase to a possible increase in the minimum consumer basket in Q1 or H1 of the year. In this context, he categorically disagrees with the assertions that the big inflationary wave has already passed. , Manaseryan asks.
In addition, according to the expert, the RA authorities underestimated the consequences of "peaceful life" for the tax revenues of the state treasury. "After all, at some point the conflict over Ukraine will end and the burden of ensuring the tax revenues planned by the state budget will fall on the shoulders of 2.9 million citizens of Armenia. Meanwhile, according to the forecast of the World Bank, the poverty rate in Armenia by the end of 2022 may increase from 27% to 42% - an indicator unprecedented in the years of independence. It is not clear how, with such a low level of purchasing power of the population, the planned taxes will be collected>, the expert said.
Under these conditions, according to Manaseryan, the authorities should have taken advantage of "bonuses" for the Armenian economy this year and started creating solid foundations to increase its ability to withstand chalanges in the absence of "bonus" artificial stimulants. For this purpose, according to the expert, for example, it was necessary to develop microbusiness and invest more in the development of science - so far the only competitive advantage of Armenia, and not spend money on representation expenses and bonuses to state officials.
