Monday, December 5 2022 17:20
Karina Melikyan

Growth of Armenia`s economic activity to 14.5% in 10 months was  accompanied by increase in exports and imports

Growth of Armenia`s economic activity to 14.5% in 10 months was  accompanied by increase in exports and imports

ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity in January-October 2022 accelerated growth to 14.5% per annum (from 4.3% a year earlier), far exceeding the pre-Covid 7.1%  growth (in the same period in 2019). This is accompanied by  impressive growth in exports and imports.  This is evidenced by the  final data of the RA Statistical Committee, according to which the  service sector continues to be the driver of economic growth to a  greater extent.

In October this year to October 2021, economic activity accelerated  growth to 17.5% (from 3.6% a year earlier), also surpassing the  pre-Covid growth of 7.7%. At the same time, in October 2022 alone,  economic activity declined by 2% from September growth by 8.9%, which  was also observed in 2021 - from September 12.6% growth to October  4.9% decline and into pre-Covid period (in October 2019) - from  September 7.8% growth to October 4.7% decline.

At the same time, inflation continues to grow: in January-October  2022, compared to the same period in 2021, it reached 8.7%; by  October 2021 increased to 9.5% (with 0.3% inflation in October  alone), from levels recorded in 2021 in the periods under review -  6.9% in January-October, 9.1% in October against October 2020 (with  inflation 0.7% for October alone). The growth of economic activity in  January-October 2022 was largely determined by the service sector -  by 27.9%, and to a lesser extent by the energy complex - by 16.8%,  the trade sector - by 15.5%, the construction sector - by 14.4%, and  the industrial sector - by 9.9%. For the agricultural sector, data  are published only on quarterly terms. A year earlier, in January-  October 2021, only the energy complex was in decline - by 3.1%, while  all other industries, as now, showed growth, but relatively modest:   the trade sector - by 7%, the service sector - by 6.4 %, the  construction sector - by 5.9%, the industrial sector - by 1.1%.

The price index of industrial products increased in January-October  2022 compared to the same period in 2020 by 3.4%, in October 2022  compared to October 2021 it decreased by 2.9%, and in October 2022  alone growth slowed down to 0.7% from September 2.9%. A year earlier,  in the same periods, the industrial products price index showed a  more noticeable increase and only the monthly dynamics repeated the  current picture: in January-October 2021 compared to the same period  in 2020 - an increase of 9.9%, in October 2021 against October 2020 -  an increase of 10.8 %,  and for October 2021 alone  growth slowed to  0.2% from 2.7% in September.

On monthly terms (for October 2022), a deterioration in dynamics was  observed in the trading sector - up to a 1.9% decline from a  September 2.1% growth. And other sectors remained in growth: the  construction sector - with a slowdown to 6.2% from September 8.8%,  the service sector - with a slowdown to 4.4% from September 4.7%, and  the industrial sector and the energy complex - respectively by 5.2%  and 2.6% growth from the September 1.7% and 12.4% decline. A year  earlier, in October 2021, the trade sector and the service sector  declined - by 3.8-1.5%, while other sectors showed growth: the  industrial sector - by 9.6%, the energy complex - by 5.8%, the  construction sector - by 4.2%.

On y-o-y terms (October 2022 to October 2021), all sectors showed  growth, and at an accelerating pace, and even the energy complex  managed to recover from the recession to double-digit growth. In  particular, the service sector accelerated its growth rate to 34.9%,  the trade sector- up to 23.1%, the construction sector - up to 15.1%,  the industrial sector - up to 9.7%, and the energy complex managed to  recover from the recession by 15.7% growth. A year earlier, in  October 2021 by October 2020, the only decline was observed in the  energy complex - by 6.2%, while other sectors showed growth: the  service sector - by 14.6%, the trade sector - by 12.7%, the  industrial sector - by 3.9%, construction - by 3.6%.

According to statistical data in January-October 2022, the leadership  in absolute terms is held by the trading sector with a volume of 3.4  trillion drams ($7.7 billion). The industrial sector ranks 2nd with a  volume of 2.13 trillion drams ($4.8 billion), the service sector  ranks 3rd - 2.07 trillion drams ($4.7 billion).  And due to the lack  of data on the agricultural sector , the construction sector ranks  4th - 360.8 billion drams ($812.9 million). The volume of electricity  generation in January-October 2022 amounted to 7198 million kWh, of  which 673.9 million kWh - in October.

Against this background, the ay-o-y growth of Armenia's foreign trade  turnover sharply accelerated in January-October 2022 from 13.6% to  66.4%, amounting to 4.7 trillion drams ($10.9 billion). In its  structure, such a sharp acceleration of rising rates was observed  both in exports - from 16.9% to 71.2%, and in imports - from 11.8% to  63.5 reaching 1.8 trillion drams ($4.1 billion) and 2.9 trillion  drams ($6.8 billion) respectively. In October 2022, the growth of  foreign trade turnover accelerated from 1.1% to 4.4%, due to the  recovery of imports from stagnation by 6.1% growth while export  growth slowed down from 2.9% to 1.9%. And in October 2022, compared  to October 2021, a significant increase in foreign trade turnover by  91% was provoked by an increase  in exports 2.2-fold and imports by  74.4%, while in the same period in 2021 (in October to October 2020 )  foreign trade turnover showed a much modest growth of 24.1% coming  more from imports - by 29.4% than from exports - by 14.7%.

The average settlement rate of the dram in October 2022 was 402.73  AMD/$1, and in January-October 2022 - 443.81 AMD/$1, against 479.25  AMD/$1 - in October 2021 and 508.24 AMD/$1 - in January- October  2021. 

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