ArmInfo.The war between Russia and Ukraine had its own negative consequences for the Armenian economy. Minister of Economy Vahan Kerobyan stated this in an interview with Radio Van.
First of all, the minister pointed to the logistical problems associated with Upper Lars, as well as the increase in prices due to the large influx of new residents to the capital (immigrants). In this vein, he stressed that the demand for some categories has grown tenfold, for example, for real estate. "If we talk about negative factors, then the acceleration of inflation was affected by an increase in demand. It is because of this that the cost of the consumer basket has increased, in connection with which the needy segments of the population of Armenia may fall below the poverty line," Kerobyan noted. In this regard, he stressed that this year the work of the department was aimed precisely at neutralizing these risks.
At the same time, Kerobyan added that for 2023 the ministry has set the same economic growth rate of 7% as in 2022, to achieve which the department has a number of programs in its arsenal. However, he also pointed to many risks, mentioning in this context, first of all, the geopolitical situation, the lack of labor and the investment environment. In particular, he said that at the moment there are 100 thousand vacancies in Armenia, mainly in such sectors as construction, agriculture, industry and services. According to the minister, this is due to the low mobility of the population and low wages. "We see the solution to this issue in increasing the productivity of enterprises. After all, companies cannot provide their employees with high wages due to low productivity>, he said, noting that in order to increase this indicator, it is necessary to carry out a digital transformation of the business segment, 90% of which is still immature in this sense.
Speaking about the investment environment, Kerobyan explained: "We are still not very good at absorbing investments. Investment projects are moving slowly due to bureaucracy. Now we are dealing with this, and I hope we will find ways to overcome this problem>, he said. It should be noted that the joint report of the RA Statistical Committee and the World Bank: "The Social Snapshot and the Poverty in Armenia" states that the poverty rate in Armenia in 2021 averaged 26.5%, of which 1.5% falls on the extremely poor population (against 27% in 2020, of which 0.7% are below the extreme poverty).
According to this report, 2021 estimates show that if payments of all types of social transfers (including pensions and social assistance) are suspended, and households are unable to find other sources of compensation for these losses, the overall poverty rate in Armenia will almost double - from reporting 26.5% to 49%.
Meanwhile, back in April, Kerobyan said that if the registered economic growth is not distributed among all, in particular, to increase the incomes of the vulnerable sections of the population, then in 2022 the poverty level in Armenia may reach 42 percent. In this regard, he explained: "Despite the positive results, the future is full of risks, which is associated with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This conflict creates problems for agriculture, food security, which will also affect inflation. Thus, the cost of the food basket will increase. And, consequently, another 15% of the population will be below the poverty line.
